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Atalanta – Venezia3 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Atalanta
1.33
Total xG
2.56
Venezia
1.23
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Atalanta | Venezia |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.63x league average) | −0.52 | |
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.35 | +0.35 |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | +0.28 | |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | +0.26 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.20 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.5 season average) | −0.20 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.13 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.13 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 20 vs 11, 9 places gap) | −0.12 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 11 vs 20, 9 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| 37% of goal output missing (only 62% available) | ||
| Gianluca Busio not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) |
Key factors
- The mathematical model predicts a 37% probability for a home win
- Venezia averaged 3.8 shots on target in recent matches, compared to Atalanta's 2.8
- Venezia have lost all 5 league matches so far this season
Risks
- Atalanta currently have only 63% active goal share available
- Venezia concede an average of 5.0 goals per away match
- Both teams have had over 20 days without a match
All probabilities
Result
Atalanta37%
Draw30%
Venezia33%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.547%
Under 2.553%
Over 3.526%
Under 3.574%
Double chance
Atalanta or draw67%
Venezia or draw63%
No draw70%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
8%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
0:2
6%
3:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Atalanta: 7 of 15 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Atalanta with Davide Zappacosta starting: 1.5 goals/game, without him: 0.6 (21/5 games, last 30)
- Venezia: opponent scores first in 6 of 9 games (67%)
Lineups
Atalanta 4-2-3-1 · Venezia 3-5-2
Atalanta
- 29 M. Carnesecchi
- 16 R. Bellanova
- 31 T. Kristensen
- 42 G. Scalvini
- 77 D. Zappacosta
- 19 F. Kessié
- 13 É. dos Santos Lourenço da Silva
- 99 E. Elmas
- 17 C. De Ketelaere
- 11 J. Rowe
- 90 N. Krstović
Venezia
- 1 F. Stankovic
- 25 R. Halhal
- 15 J. Nunes Jesus
- 2 M. Moreno
- 18 A. Hainaut
- 71 E. Pérez Muñoz
- 19 S. Sohm
- 26 T. Bašić
- 14 T. Rendall Correia
- 10 J. Zamora
- 45 A. Adams
Substitutes
- 18 G. Raspadori
- 23 S. Kolašinac
- 47 L. Bernasconi
- 59 N. Zalewski
- 57 M. Sportiello
- 8 M. Pašalić
- 9 G. Scamacca
- 10 L. Samardžić
- 40 R. Obrić
- 70 G. Gaetano
- 41 J. Idele
- 8 L. Dabo
- 56 K. Lisman
- 7 A. Rrahmani
- 77 A. Fernández Casino
- 21 T. Helgason
- 96 L. Montipò
- 5 R. Haps
- 3 J. Schingtienne
- 20 S. Sagrado
- 36 L. Berardi
- 30 M. Dagasso
- 95 A. Gomes Furtado
- 29 L. Lauberbach
- 55 S. Panada
- 16 R. Mohammed
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