Match report â
Como â Roma0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Como
1.46
Total xG
3.10
Roma
1.64
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Como | Roma |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | â0.57 | |
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | â0.47 | |
| Small sample (1 matches) - regression to mean | +0.42 | |
| Attack strength (1.41x league average) | â0.42 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.41 | +0.41 |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | +0.15 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.15 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.7 season average) | +0.15 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.09 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 8 vs 2, 6 places gap) | â0.09 | |
| Attack strength (1.53x league average) | +0.08 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 8, 6 places gap) | +0.05 | |
| Martin Baturina on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 10% of goal output missing (only 83% available) | ||
| MatĂas SoulĂ© not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (2.7 vs 2.1 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Roma are slight favorites with a 41% win probability calculated by the model, compared to 33% for Como
- High offensive output: Como averaged 7.2 shots on target in recent matches, compared to Roma's 6.0
- Key attackers in form: Donyell Malen with 6 season goals for Roma faces Como's Nico Paz and Assane Diao
Risks
- Absence in Roma's squad: Goalkeeper M. Svilar is out with a broken finger, B. Cristante with a knee injury
- M. Kean misses out for Como due to a muscle injury, with Martin Baturina not in the starting lineup
All probabilities
Result
Como33%
Draw27%
Roma41%
Goals
Over 1.583%
Under 1.517%
Over 2.560%
Under 2.540%
Over 3.538%
Under 3.562%
Double chance
Como or draw59%
Roma or draw67%
No draw73%
Both teams score
Yes63%
No37%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
2:2
6%
0:2
6%
0:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Roma: first goal in 10 of 12 games (83%)
- Roma: 9 wins in 11 games with xG above 1.0 (82% win rate)
- Como: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Roma with Manu Koné starting: 2.4 goals/game, without him: 1.5 (17/10 games, last 30)
Lineups
Como 4-2-3-1 · Roma 3-4-2-1
Como
- 1 J. Butez
- 27 Y. Couto
- 4 J. Naveros
- 99 T. Chalobah
- 16 K. da Silva
- 5 M. Perrone
- 7 L. Da Cunha
- 11 A. Diao Diaoune
- 10 N. Paz MartĂnez
- 8 M. Caqueret
- 9 A. Douvikas
Roma
- 95 P. Gollini
- 23 G. Mancini
- 5 O. N'Dicka
- 22 M. Hermoso Canseco
- 20 N. Molina Lucero
- 15 M. de Roon
- 17 K. Kone
- 43 W. França Lima
- 21 P. Exequiel Dybala
- 7 L. Pellegrini
- 14 D. Malen
Substitutes
- 6 L. Milla Manzanares
- 53 W. Kambwala
- 97 R. Lynch Sanchez
- 15 A. Lahdo
- 21 S. Ricci
- 20 M. Baturina
- 28 I. SmolÄiÄ
- 17 J. RodrĂguez Caraballo
- 42 J. Addai
- 2 M. Kempf
- 18 E. Goldaniga
- 13 A. Dossena
- 22 M. Vigorito
- 3 ?. Valle GĂłmez
- 30 M. Liberali
- 26 L. Balerdi Rossa
- 86 R. Mora Carvalho
- 9 S. Castro
- 87 D. Ghilardi
- 32 D. VĂĄsquez Llach
- 18 M. Malvano
- 61 N. Pisilli
- 2 D. Rensch
- 70 G. De Marzi
- 77 E. Lulli
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