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Lazio – Monza3 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Lazio
1.50
Total xG
2.71
Monza
1.21
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Lazio | Monza |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.79x league average) | −0.64 | |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | +0.51 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.41 | +0.41 |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.39 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.26 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | +0.18 | |
| Attack strength (1.28x league average) | −0.17 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 3, 12 places gap) | −0.17 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.11 | |
| Rising form (1.6 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.11 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 15, 12 places gap) | +0.09 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.03 | |
| Strong home record (1.6 vs 1.2 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Lazio's active squad accounts for only 15% of seasonal goal production
- The model predicts a home win probability of 43% with 1.50 expected home goals
- Lazio remain undefeated in Serie A with a form record of WWWDW
Risks
- Monza concede an average of 2.67 goals per away match
- Monza have kept 0 clean sheets across 5 matches this season
All probabilities
Result
Lazio43%
Draw29%
Monza29%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.551%
Under 2.549%
Over 3.529%
Under 3.571%
Double chance
Lazio or draw71%
Monza or draw57%
No draw71%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
5%
3:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Lazio: 5 of 15 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Lazio: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Lazio: scored only after the break in 5 of 12 games
Lineups
Lazio 4-3-3 · Monza 3-4-2-1
Lazio
- 35 C. Mandas
- 15 R. Floriani
- 5 D. Doekhi
- 25 O. Nielsen
- 17 N. Varela Tavares
- 16 D. Frattesi
- 21 R. Belahyane
- 24 K. Taylor
- 11 G. Isaksen
- 14 T. Noslin
- 10 M. Zaccagni
Monza
- 1 N. Törnqvist
- 60 E. Kouadio
- 3 L. Lucchesi
- 44 A. Carboni
- 19 S. Birindelli
- 90 M. Folorunsho
- 14 E. Akinsanmiro
- 7 R. Chaby Mangas
- 16 C. Ngonge
- 22 E. Zeballos
- 9 G. Pereira De Sousa
Substitutes
- 2 D. Monteiro Pinto Leite
- 23 A. Pedraza Sag
- 37 J. Šutalo
- 32 D. Cataldi
- 29 M. Lazzari
- 7 F. Dele-Bashiru
- 9 A. Pinamonti
- 40 E. Motta
- 71 V. Farcomeni
- 63 F. Serra
- 28 A. Przyborek
- 47 D. Renzetti
- 46 J. Robinson
- 2 S. Goglichidze
- 10 P. Cutrone
- 6 V. Ivaylov Antov
- 20 D. Thiam
- 43 A. Strajnar
- 24 A. Bakoune
- 28 A. Colpani
- 21 L. Colombo
- 47 D. Carvalho
- 5 Y. Maye
- 8 M. Foe Ondoa
- 80 M. Mout
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