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Sassuolo – AC Milan1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Sassuolo
1.63
Total xG
2.84
AC Milan
1.21
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Sassuolo | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.38 | +0.38 |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | +0.36 | |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | −0.16 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.14 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.14 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.14 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.03 | |
| Alphadjo Cissè on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.5 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Squad constraint: Sassuolo currently has only 20% of their usual goal production available
- Model prediction: Analysis calculates a 73% probability for home win or draw
- Tactical trend: Sassuolo averaged 6.0 shots on target per game in recent matches
Risks
- Sassuolo conceded an average of 1.32 goals per game this season
- Sassuolo enters the match after 23 days since their last game
- AC Milan averaged 4.2 shots on target in recent matches
All probabilities
Result
Sassuolo45%
Draw27%
AC Milan27%
Goals
Over 1.579%
Under 1.521%
Over 2.554%
Under 2.546%
Over 3.532%
Under 3.568%
Double chance
Sassuolo or draw73%
AC Milan or draw55%
No draw73%
Both teams score
Yes58%
No42%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Sassuolo with Domenico Berardi starting: 1.5 goals/game, without him: 0.6 (15/9 games, last 29)
- AC Milan: 50% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (8 of 16)
- AC Milan: 6 of 16 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- AC Milan: 81% of all goals in the second half (13 of 16, last 12 games)
- Sassuolo: 5 of 15 goals scored by substitutes (last 11 games)
- Diego Moreira: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
Lineups
Sassuolo 4-3-3 · AC Milan 4-4-2
Sassuolo
- 49 A. Murić
- 20 I. Brempt
- 15 D. Ćaleta-Car
- 16 F. Leysen
- 3 J. Doig
- 17 V. Adžić
- 18 N. Matić
- 50 D. Bakola
- 10 D. Berardi
- 94 S. Esposito
- 45 A. Lauriente
AC Milan
- 16 M. Maignan
- 34 M. Fuentes
- 46 M. Gabbia
- 31 S. Pavlović
- 2 P. Estupiñán Tenorio
- 21 S. Chukwueze
- 80 Y. Musah
- 12 A. Rabiot
- 22 D. da Silva Moreira
- 11 C. Pulisic
- 9 G. Ramos
Substitutes
- 33 Rafael Burguera
- 55 I. Sulemana
- 25 B. Domínguez
- 9 K. Bowie
- 80 S. Turati
- 12 G. Satalino
- 5 F. Candé
- 6 S. Walukiewicz
- 19 L. Skjellerup
- 42 K. Thorstvedt
- 26 C. Odenthal
- 7 C. Volpato
- 35 L. Lipani
- 8 A. Ghion
- 46 S. Cinquegrano
- 20 O. Giraud-Hutchinson
- 30 A. Jasari
- 14 L. Modrić
- 33 D. Bartesaghi
- 23 F. Tomori
- 96 L. Torriani
- 5 K. De Winter
- 8 R. Loftus-Cheek
- 73 F. Camarda
- 42 F. Terracciano
- 70 A. Cisse
- 13 S. Bocoum
- 28 C. Comotto
- 41 L. Bouyer
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