Match report →
Inter – Parma3 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Inter
2.30
Total xG
3.27
Parma
0.97
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Inter | Parma |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.75x league average) | +1.51 | |
| Attack weakness (0.52x league average) | −0.89 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | −0.84 | |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | +0.59 | |
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.44 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.40 | +0.40 |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 2, 13 places gap) | −0.14 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 15, 13 places gap) | +0.14 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.03 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.01 | |
| Lautaro Martínez on the bench (4 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Piotr Zieliński on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Nicolò Barella on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 11% of goal output missing (only 98% available) | ||
| 100% of goal output missing (only 76% available) | ||
| Strong home record (2.9 vs 2.3 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Not selected: Lautaro Martínez, Piotr Zieliński, Nicolò Barella
- Inter averaged 7.8 shots on target in recent matches, compared to Parma's 2.8
- The model calculation evaluates Inter's home win probability at 66%
Risks
- Parma are operating at only 77% of usual starting XI strength
- Parma concede an average of 1.31 goals per away match
- Parma averaged only 2.8 shots on target in recent matches
All probabilities
Result
Inter66%
Draw21%
Parma13%
Goals
Over 1.585%
Under 1.515%
Over 2.563%
Under 2.537%
Over 3.541%
Under 3.559%
Double chance
Inter or draw87%
Parma or draw34%
No draw79%
Both teams score
Yes57%
No43%
Most likely scores
2:0
10%
2:1
10%
1:1
10%
3:0
8%
3:1
7%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Parma: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (5 of 10 total)
- Parma: 4 of 8 goals scored by substitutes (last 11 games)
- Parma: 6 of 15 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Parma: scored only after the break in 5 of 12 games
- Inter: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Inter: 2 comebacks in 3 games after trailing past minute 75 (4 points rescued)
Lineups
Inter 3-5-2 · Parma 3-4-2-1
Inter
- 1 J. Martínez Riera
- 28 B. Pavard
- 31 Y. Bisseck
- 30 C. Zopalato Neves
- 17 A. Diouf
- 8 P. Sučić
- 20 H. Çalhanoğlu
- 22 H. Mkhitaryan
- 32 F. Dimarco
- 9 M. Thuram
- 94 F. Esposito
Parma
- 40 E. Corvi
- 37 M. Troilo
- 34 D. Santos Silva
- 29 F. Carboni
- 15 E. Del Prato
- 16 M. Keita
- 4 V. Sierro
- 14 E. Valeri
- 80 G. Fabbian
- 19 E. Toure
- 23 N. Elphege
Substitutes
- 99 D. Spence
- 5 A. Stankovic
- 14 A. Bonny
- 11 L. Tomaz de Lima
- 25 M. Akanji
- 10 L. Martínez
- 7 P. Zieliński
- 12 R. Di Gennaro
- 23 N. Barella
- 95 A. Bastoni
- 49 I. Provedel
- 46 L. Bovio
- 27 S. Britschgi
- 20 M. Frigan
- 8 B. Cremaschi
- 10 A. Bernabe Garcia
- 32 C. Ordoñez
- 22 S. Ghidotti
- 30 G. Daffara
- 72 D. Drobnič
- 9 J. Romero
- 7 O. Diallo Thiao
- 76 S. Lontani
- 47 A. Salam Konaté
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