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Serie A10/12/2026, 06:45 PM

Torino – Udinese2 : 1

Why the model thinks so

Torino
1.30
Total xG
2.64
Udinese
1.33
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff

How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.

FactorTorinoUdinese
Attack weakness (0.61x league average)−0.40
High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)+0.35+0.35
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean+0.18
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)+0.16
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.3 season average)+0.16
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)−0.13
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.2 season average)−0.13
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean−0.12
Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)+0.01
Keinan Davis on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.3 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

Key factors

  • Reduced attacking output: Torino currently have only 11% of their usual seasonal goal production available
  • Tactical threat: Udinese averaged 5.8 shots on target in recent matches
  • Model prediction: The probability of an away win for Udinese is calculated at 36%

Risks

  • Defensive vulnerability: Udinese conceded an average of 2.2 goals per match in their last 5 games
  • Low scoring form: Torino averaged only 0.8 goals per match over their last 5 fixtures
  • Missing key player: Keinan Davis is not included in Udinese's lineup

All probabilities

Result
Torino35%
Draw29%
Udinese36%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.549%
Under 2.551%
Over 3.527%
Under 3.573%
Double chance
Torino or draw64%
Udinese or draw65%
No draw71%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%

Most likely scores

1:1
14%
1:2
8%
2:1
8%
0:2
6%
2:0
6%

The Lab

Patterns our system found in the data.

  1. Torino: opponent scores first in 10 of 12 games (83%)
  2. Torino: 5 of 12 goals scored by substitutes (last 11 games)
  3. Torino: scored only after the break in 6 of 12 games
  4. Torino with Ché Adams starting: 1.6 goals/game, without him: 0.9 (13/7 games, last 29)
  5. Udinese: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
  6. Udinese: 33% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 18)

Lineups

Torino 3-4-2-1 · Udinese 3-4-2-1

Torino
  • 20 L. Estella Perri
  • 15 P. Comuzzo
  • 23 S. Coco-Bassey Oubiña
  • 13 R. RodrĂ­guez Araya
  • 45 R. Belghali
  • 8 R. Mandragora
  • 21 D. Santos Bragança
  • 77 A. Cacciamani
  • 11 G. Oristanio
  • 19 C. Adams
  • 18 G. Simeone
Udinese
  • 40 M. Okoye
  • 14 J. Abankwah
  • 28 O. Solet Bomawoko
  • 77 E. Ebosse
  • 23 M. Vojvoda
  • 8 J. Karlström
  • 6 O. Zarraga Egaña
  • 11 H. Kamara
  • 32 J. Ekkelenkamp
  • 30 G. Chakvetadze
  • 46 U. GĂłmez Etxebarria
Substitutes
  • 5 E. Cömert
  • 2 N. Patterson
  • 28 K. Fitz-Jim
  • 17 S. Kulenovic
  • 44 A. Ismajli
  • 91 D. Zapata Banguera
  • 66 G. Gineitis
  • 10 N. VlaĆĄić
  • 7 Z. Aboukhlal
  • 6 E. Ä°lkhan
  • 3 C. Biraghi
  • 22 C. Casadei
  • 9 P. Pellegri
  • 26 D. Mascardi
  • 76 L. Siviero
  • 91 L. Jovanović
  • 5 D. Olatukunbo Alaba
  • 41 B. Mrozek
  • 27 C. Kabasele
  • 9 K. Davis
  • 38 L. Miller
  • 20 J. Arizala
  • 16 M. Palma
  • 4 S. Lovric
  • 93 D. Padelli
  • 13 N. Bertola

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