Match report →
Venezia – Napoli1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Venezia
1.13
Total xG
2.76
Napoli
1.63
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Venezia | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (2.5 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | +0.91 | |
| Attack strength (1.21x league average) | +0.89 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | −0.55 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.42 | +0.42 |
| Attack strength (1.36x league average) | +0.18 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 20 vs 9, 11 places gap) | −0.14 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.12 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | −0.10 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 1.5 season average) | −0.10 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 9 vs 20, 11 places gap) | +0.09 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.06 | |
| Kevin De Bruyne on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Rasmus Højlund on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Matteo Politano on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 75% of goal output missing (only 40% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.7 vs 1.4 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Table: Napoli ranks 9th in the league with 10 points from 6 matches, Venezia is 20th with 0 points
- Home/Away: Venezia concedes 2.67 goals per match at home in the league, Napoli scores 1.67 goals per match away
- Form: Venezia lost all of its last 5 matches, Napoli recorded 2 wins and 1 draw in its last 5 matches
Risks
- xG: Venezia averaged 1.69 xG per match in 6 league matches, but scored 0.83 goals per match
- Away: Napoli conceded 1.33 goals per match in 3 away matches in the league
All probabilities
Result
Venezia25%
Draw28%
Napoli48%
Double chance
Venezia or draw52%
Napoli or draw75%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.552%
Under 2.548%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
1:2
10%
0:2
8%
2:1
7%
2:2
5%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Napoli: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Venezia: opponent scores first in 7 of 10 games (70%)
- Napoli: 35% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (6 of 17)
Lineups
Venezia 3-5-2 · Napoli 3-4-2-1
Venezia
- 1 F. Stankovic
- 25 R. Halhal
- 2 M. Moreno
- 15 J. Nunes Jesus
- 18 A. Hainaut
- 71 E. Pérez Muñoz
- 19 S. Sohm
- 26 T. Bašić
- 5 R. Haps
- 10 J. Zamora
- 45 A. Adams
Napoli
- 1 A. Meret
- 31 S. Beukema
- 13 A. Rrahmani
- 5 B. Badiashile Mukinayi
- 22 G. Di Lorenzo
- 6 B. Gilmour
- 68 S. Lobotka
- 37 L. Spinazzola
- 23 G. Santana do Nascimento
- 8 S. McTominay
- 20 L. Lucca
Substitutes
- 8 L. Dabo
- 70 P. Mazzocchi
- 56 K. Lisman
- 7 A. Rrahmani
- 77 A. Fernández Casino
- 21 T. Helgason
- 96 L. Montipò
- 3 J. Schingtienne
- 20 S. Sagrado
- 36 L. Berardi
- 30 M. Dagasso
- 95 A. Gomes Furtado
- 29 L. Lauberbach
- 55 S. Panada
- 16 R. Mohammed
- 16 R. Marín Zamora
- 32 V. Milinković Savić
- 14 N. Contini Baranovsky
- 19 R. Højlund
- 70 N. Lang
- 21 M. Politano
- 99 A. Zambo Anguissa
- 7 D. Neres Campos
- 17 M. Olivera Miramontes
- 11 K. De Bruyne
- 35 L. Marianucci
- 27 A. de Almeida Santos
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