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Monza – Cagliari4 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Monza
1.51
Total xG
2.62
Cagliari
1.10
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Monza | Cagliari |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.44 | +0.44 |
| Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.24 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | +0.16 | |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | +0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 7, 8 places gap) | −0.13 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 15, 8 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Shots on target: Monza averaged 7.2 shots on target per match in the last 5 matches, Cagliari 4.4 per match
- Defense: Cagliari allowed 1.56 xG per match in 5 matches with xG data, but conceded 0.8 goals per match
Risks
- Table: Cagliari is 7th in the league with 13 points from 6 matches, Monza 15th with 4 points from 6 matches
- Personnel: Monza without L. Lucchesi, starting in 5 of the last 5 matches
- Form: Cagliari recorded 4 wins in 6 league matches this season, Monza 1 win in 6 matches
All probabilities
Result
Monza45%
Draw29%
Cagliari26%
Double chance
Monza or draw74%
Cagliari or draw55%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.575%
Under 1.525%
Over 2.549%
Under 2.551%
Over 3.527%
Under 3.573%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.51 : 1.10, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
5%
4:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Cagliari: 42% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (5 of 12)
Lineups
Monza 3-4-2-1 · Cagliari 4-3-2-1
Monza
- 1 N. Törnqvist
- 60 E. Kouadio
- 2 S. Goglichidze
- 44 A. Carboni
- 19 S. Birindelli
- 8 M. Foe Ondoa
- 14 E. Akinsanmiro
- 7 R. Chaby Mangas
- 47 D. Carvalho
- 46 J. Robinson
- 9 G. Pereira De Sousa
Cagliari
- 1 E. Caprile
- 2 J. da Silva Figueiredo Freitas
- 26 Y. Mina González
- 15 J. Rodríguez Camejo
- 33 A. Obert
- 8 M. Adopo
- 6 H. Winks
- 4 A. Romano
- 31 P. Mendy
- 70 D. Maldini
- 18 M. N'Zola
Substitutes
- 16 C. Ngonge
- 10 P. Cutrone
- 90 M. Folorunsho
- 6 V. Ivaylov Antov
- 20 D. Thiam
- 43 A. Strajnar
- 24 A. Bakoune
- 28 A. Colpani
- 21 L. Colombo
- 26 P. Ciurria
- 11 O. Forson
- 80 M. Mout
- 28 Y. Sugawara
- 9 K. Omoruyi Benjamin
- 10 J. Fazzini
- 39 A. Fadera
- 21 R. Gagliardini
- 27 J. Liteta
- 14 A. Deiola
- 12 A. Sherri
- 79 Y. Massolin
- 20 R. Ciervo
- 23 B. Radunović
- 24 G. Aurelio
- 22 R. Kofler
- 32 I. Sulev
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