Match report →
Roma – Genoa2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Roma
1.72
Total xG
2.60
Genoa
0.88
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Roma | Genoa |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.48x league average) | −0.78 | |
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.62 | |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | +0.56 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.40 | +0.40 |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.25 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 3, 14 places gap) | −0.14 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 17, 14 places gap) | +0.11 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | +0.07 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| Attack strength (1.33x league average) | +0.03 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| Donyell Malen not in squad (6 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Paulo Dybala on the bench (0 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Manu Koné on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Gianluca Mancini on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 52% of goal output missing (only 31% available) | ||
| Strong home record (2.5 vs 1.7 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (0.6 vs 1.3 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Roma scores 2.67 goals per game at home in the league, Genoa scores 0.5 per game away
- Table: Roma ranks 3rd with 2.33 goals scored per game, Genoa 17th with 1.83 goals conceded per game in the league
Risks
- Personnel: D. Malen and K. Kone are absent, they scored 8 of the 14 league goals by Roma players this season (57%)
- Rest days: Roma with 3 days since their last match
All probabilities
Result
Roma56%
Draw27%
Genoa18%
Double chance
Roma or draw82%
Genoa or draw44%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.575%
Under 1.525%
Over 2.548%
Under 2.552%
Over 3.526%
Under 3.574%
Both teams score
Yes50%
No50%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:0
11%
2:1
10%
3:0
6%
3:1
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Roma: first goal in 10 of 11 games (91%)
- Roma: 8 wins in 10 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)
- Roma: 5 of 10 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Genoa: opponent scores first in 7 of 10 games (70%)
Lineups
Roma 3-4-2-1 · Genoa 3-4-2-1
Roma
- 95 P. Gollini
- 26 L. Balerdi Rossa
- 5 O. N'Dicka
- 3 K. Koulierakis
- 77 E. Lulli
- 15 M. de Roon
- 61 N. Pisilli
- 2 D. Rensch
- 18 M. Malvano
- 86 R. Mora Carvalho
- 9 S. Castro
Genoa
- 1 J. Bijlow
- 27 A. Marcandalli
- 5 L. Skiri Oestigaard
- 22 J. Vásquez Ibarra
- 77 M. Ellertsson
- 71 S. Wiafe
- 32 M. Frendrup
- 31 D. Puczka
- 10 J. Messias
- 92 S. El Shaarawy
- 18 M. Osmajić
Substitutes
- 20 N. Molina Lucero
- 7 L. Pellegrini
- 87 D. Ghilardi
- 43 W. França Lima
- 32 D. Vásquez Llach
- 21 P. Exequiel Dybala
- 22 M. Hermoso Canseco
- 23 G. Mancini
- 17 K. Kone
- 70 G. De Marzi
- 68 A. Arena
- 72 L. Paratici
- 25 H. Traorè
- 16 C. Drameh
- 8 T. Baldanzi
- 3 K. Ehizibue
- 39 D. Sommariva
- 20 S. Sabelli
- 9 V. Carvalho Oliveira
- 34 S. Otoa
- 4 A. Amorim de Freitas Filho
- 99 F. Stolz
- 2 M. Mitaj
- 21 R. de Souza Júnior
- 14 L. Klišys
- 85 M. Vaz
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