Match report →
Bologna – Inter1 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Bologna
1.04
Total xG
3.01
Inter
1.97
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Bologna | Inter |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.67x league average) | +0.55 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.39 | +0.39 |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.30 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 1, 13 places gap) | −0.16 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match) | +0.14 | |
| Rising form (2.8 vs 2.3 season average) | +0.14 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | −0.13 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 14, 13 places gap) | +0.12 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.12 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.12 | |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | −0.10 | |
| Lautaro Martínez not in squad (4 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Andy Diouf on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Hakan Çalhanoğlu on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Carlos Augusto on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 18% of goal output missing (only 81% available) | ||
| Strong home record (2 vs 1.4 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Table: Inter ranks 1st in the league with 16 points from 6 matches, Bologna sits in 14th with 5 points
- Attack: Inter averages 3 goals per match in the league this season, while Bologna averages 0.83 goals per match
- Shots: Inter averages 8.4 shots on target per match over the last 5 matches, Bologna 3.2
Risks
- Personnel: L. Martínez is absent, having scored 4 of the 18 league goals by Inter players this season (22%)
- Form: Inter recorded 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in their last 5 matches
All probabilities
Result
Bologna18%
Draw24%
Inter58%
Double chance
Bologna or draw42%
Inter or draw82%
No draw76%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.558%
Under 2.542%
Over 3.536%
Under 3.564%
Both teams score
Yes57%
No43%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
1:2
10%
0:2
10%
1:3
7%
0:3
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Inter: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Inter: 3 comebacks in 5 games after trailing past minute 75 (5 points rescued)
- Bologna: 4 of 12 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Inter: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)
Lineups
Bologna 3-4-2-1 · Inter 3-5-2
Bologna
- 1 Ł. Skorupski
- 36 M. Darmian
- 16 N. Casale
- 3 A. Theate
- 20 N. Zortea
- 19 L. Ferguson
- 4 T. Pobega
- 33 J. Miranda González
- 10 F. Bernardeschi
- 28 N. Cambiaghi
- 91 R. Piccoli
Inter
- 1 J. Martínez Riera
- 31 Y. Bisseck
- 25 M. Akanji
- 95 A. Bastoni
- 11 L. Tomaz de Lima
- 23 N. Barella
- 7 P. Zieliński
- 8 P. Sučić
- 32 F. Dimarco
- 9 M. Thuram
- 94 F. Esposito
Substitutes
- 11 S. Mbangula
- 17 O. El Azzouzi
- 23 A. Alhassane Bonkan
- 5 E. Fauske Helland
- 14 T. Heggem
- 41 M. Vitík
- 29 L. De Silvestri
- 25 M. Pessina
- 6 N. Moro
- 21 J. Odgaard
- 9 A. Dovbyk
- 72 U. Happonen
- 22 J. Enem
- 8 M. Amondarain
- 18 M. Libra Alvarado
- 28 B. Pavard
- 99 D. Spence
- 5 A. Stankovic
- 14 A. Bonny
- 22 H. Mkhitaryan
- 12 R. Di Gennaro
- 17 A. Diouf
- 30 C. Zopalato Neves
- 20 H. Çalhanoğlu
- 49 I. Provedel
- 48 M. Mosconi
- 46 L. Bovio
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