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AC Milan – Atalanta3 : 2
Why the model thinks so
AC Milan
1.71
Total xG
2.88
Atalanta
1.17
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | AC Milan | Atalanta |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.41 | +0.41 |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | +0.21 | |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | −0.17 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.14 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.14 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.02 | |
| Alphadjo Cissè not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.5 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/Away: AC Milan scored 2.5 goals per game at home without conceding in the league, Atalanta concede 2 per game away
- Form: AC Milan are undefeated in the league after 6 games with 3 wins and 3 draws, Atalanta lost 3 of 6 league games
- Defense: AC Milan conceded 0.83 goals per game in the league this season, Atalanta concede 1.33 per game in the league
Risks
- Head-to-head: Atalanta won 3 of the 4 previous meetings against AC Milan with 1 draw
- Rest days: AC Milan with 3 days since their last match
All probabilities
Result
AC Milan49%
Draw27%
Atalanta25%
Double chance
AC Milan or draw75%
Atalanta or draw51%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.555%
Under 2.545%
Over 3.533%
Under 3.567%
Both teams score
Yes58%
No42%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
10%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
6%
3:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Atalanta: 7 of 13 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- AC Milan: 50% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (10 of 20)
- AC Milan: 80% of all goals in the second half (16 of 20, last 12 games)
- AC Milan: 7 of 20 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Adrien Rabiot: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Atalanta: 31% of all goals between minutes 1-15 (5 of 16)
Lineups
AC Milan 3-4-3 · Atalanta 4-3-3
AC Milan
- 16 M. Maignan
- 34 M. Fuentes
- 5 K. De Winter
- 31 S. Pavlović
- 21 S. Chukwueze
- 80 Y. Musah
- 14 L. Modrić
- 22 D. da Silva Moreira
- 12 A. Rabiot
- 9 G. Ramos
- 11 C. Pulisic
Atalanta
- 29 M. Carnesecchi
- 16 R. Bellanova
- 31 T. Kristensen
- 23 S. Kolašinac
- 47 L. Bernasconi
- 10 L. Samardžić
- 13 É. dos Santos Lourenço da Silva
- 8 M. Pašalić
- 17 C. De Ketelaere
- 90 N. Krstović
- 11 J. Rowe
Substitutes
- 20 O. Giraud-Hutchinson
- 30 A. Jasari
- 2 P. Estupiñán Tenorio
- 33 D. Bartesaghi
- 23 F. Tomori
- 96 L. Torriani
- 8 R. Loftus-Cheek
- 73 F. Camarda
- 42 F. Terracciano
- 70 A. Cisse
- 35 V. Vladimirov
- 13 S. Bocoum
- 28 C. Comotto
- 41 L. Bouyer
- 59 N. Zalewski
- 57 M. Sportiello
- 77 D. Zappacosta
- 9 G. Scamacca
- 40 R. Obrić
- 70 G. Gaetano
- 45 D. Pounga
- 41 J. Idele
- 51 M. Sonzogni
- 53 M. Plaia
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