Match report →
Juventus – Lazio0 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Juventus
1.88
Total xG
2.75
Lazio
0.86
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Juventus | Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.76x league average) | −0.71 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | +0.53 | |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.46 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.44 | +0.44 |
| Attack strength (1.21x league average) | +0.32 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.22 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.22 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | −0.22 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.18 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 1.8 season average) | +0.18 | |
| Francisco Conceição on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home: Juventus conceded 0.33 goals per match in 3 home league matches this season
- Shots: Juventus averaged 7.2 shots on target per match in their last 5 matches, Lazio 4.6
Risks
- Table: Lazio sit 3rd in the league with 16 points from 6 matches
- Rest days: Juventus with 3 days since their last match
All probabilities
Result
Juventus60%
Draw25%
Lazio15%
Double chance
Juventus or draw85%
Lazio or draw40%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.552%
Under 2.548%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Both teams score
Yes50%
No50%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:0
11%
2:1
10%
3:0
7%
3:1
6%
0:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Juventus: 8 of 20 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Juventus: 7 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Sassuolo: 2 goals (82', 90+1')
Lineups
Juventus 4-2-3-1 · Lazio 4-3-3
Juventus
- 25 G. Vicario
- 15 P. Kalulu Kyatengwa
- 3 G. Bremer Silva Nascimento
- 26 J. Lucumí Bonilla
- 2 M. Çelik
- 12 D. Soares de Paulo
- 29 P. Sarr
- 31 N. González
- 22 W. McKennie
- 17 K. Alajbegović
- 9 R. Kolo Muani
Lazio
- 35 C. Mandas
- 15 R. Floriani
- 37 J. Šutalo
- 25 O. Nielsen
- 17 N. Varela Tavares
- 16 D. Frattesi
- 21 R. Belahyane
- 24 K. Taylor
- 11 G. Isaksen
- 14 T. Noslin
- 10 M. Zaccagni
Substitutes
- 13 J. Boga
- 27 N. Woltemade
- 7 F. Conceição
- 32 J. Cabal Murillo
- 4 F. Gatti
- 11 E. Zhegrova
- 24 D. Rugani
- 8 T. Koopmeiners
- 23 C. Pinsoglio
- 20 A. Cambiaso
- 6 L. Kelly
- 33 N. Murara Neto
- 5 D. Doekhi
- 2 D. Monteiro Pinto Leite
- 23 A. Pedraza Sag
- 32 D. Cataldi
- 29 M. Lazzari
- 7 F. Dele-Bashiru
- 3 L. Pellegrini
- 9 A. Pinamonti
- 40 E. Motta
- 71 V. Farcomeni
- 63 F. Serra
- 28 A. Przyborek
- 47 D. Renzetti
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