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Fiorentina – Como1 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Fiorentina
1.22
Total xG
2.71
Como
1.49
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Fiorentina | Como |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.39 | +0.39 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2 goals/match) | +0.17 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.17 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 18 vs 8, 10 places gap) | −0.14 | |
| Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean | +0.09 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | −0.07 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 8 vs 18, 10 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| Assane Diao on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Martin Baturina on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 59% of goal output missing (only 48% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.8 vs 1.4 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Table: Como is 8th in the league with 11 points from 6 matches, while Fiorentina is 18th with 4 points
- Home/Away: Como scored 1.75 goals per away match in the league this season, while Fiorentina conceded 2 per home match
- Shots: Como averaged 20 shots per match in their last 5 matches, while Fiorentina averaged 15.2 per match
Risks
- Personnel: A. Diao Diaoune is missing, having scored 2 of the 9 league goals for Como players this season (22%)
- Attack: Fiorentina scored 2 goals per match in their last 5 matches across all competitions
All probabilities
Result
Fiorentina29%
Draw29%
Como42%
Double chance
Fiorentina or draw58%
Como or draw71%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.551%
Under 2.549%
Over 3.529%
Under 3.571%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:2
9%
0:2
7%
2:1
7%
2:2
6%
1:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Como: first goal in 7 of 10 games (70%)
Lineups
Fiorentina 4-2-3-1 · Como 4-2-3-1
Fiorentina
- 43 D. de Gea Quintana
- 20 A. Jiménez Sánchez
- 3 R. Drăgușin
- 5 M. Pongracic
- 33 V. Fernandes Santos Lopes
- 27 C. Ndour
- 44 N. Fagioli
- 30 F. Mastantuono
- 28 P. Pereira Gonçalves
- 25 A. Njie
- 32 M. Pellegrino Casalanguila
Como
- 1 J. Butez
- 28 I. Smolčić
- 99 T. Chalobah
- 2 M. Kempf
- 3 ?. Valle Gómez
- 6 L. Milla Manzanares
- 7 L. Da Cunha
- 30 M. Liberali
- 10 N. Paz Martínez
- 8 M. Caqueret
- 9 A. Douvikas
Substitutes
- 29 D. Gnonto
- 23 N. Bercique Gomes Betuncal
- 4 M. Brescianini
- 17 J. Neto Lopes
- 19 L. Lezzerini
- 53 O. Christensen
- 2 D. Cordeiro dos Santos
- 6 L. Ranieri
- 21 V. Valdepeñas Talavera
- 42 C. Inao Oulaï
- 72 B. Mazzeo
- 73 A. Pirrò
- 27 Y. Couto
- 53 W. Kambwala
- 97 R. Lynch Sanchez
- 15 A. Lahdo
- 21 S. Ricci
- 20 M. Baturina
- 17 J. Rodríguez Caraballo
- 5 M. Perrone
- 42 J. Addai
- 4 J. Naveros
- 18 E. Goldaniga
- 13 A. Dossena
- 22 M. Vigorito
- 11 A. Diao Diaoune
- 16 K. da Silva
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