Match report →
Udinese – Lecce0 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Udinese
1.49
Total xG
2.42
Lecce
0.94
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Udinese | Lecce |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.39 | +0.39 |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | −0.06 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | +0.01 | |
| Ivan Ilić not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Shots: Udinese averaged 5 shots on target per match in recent games, Lecce 3.4
- Away form: Lecce scored 0.67 goals per match away from home in the league this season
- Head-to-head: Udinese won 3 of the 4 head-to-head meetings against Lecce
Risks
- Squad: J. Piotrowski and I. Gueye are missing; they scored 2 of the 9 league goals for Udinese players this season (22%)
- Table: Lecce are 13th with 6 points, while Udinese are 15th with 4 points
All probabilities
Result
Udinese48%
Draw29%
Lecce22%
Double chance
Udinese or draw78%
Lecce or draw52%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.571%
Under 1.529%
Over 2.544%
Under 2.556%
Over 3.523%
Under 3.577%
Both teams score
Yes49%
No51%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:0
12%
0:0
10%
2:0
10%
2:1
9%
0:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Udinese: 44% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (7 of 16)
Lineups
Udinese 3-4-2-1 · Lecce 4-3-3
Udinese
- 40 M. Okoye
- 28 O. Solet Bomawoko
- 5 D. Olatukunbo Alaba
- 77 E. Ebosse
- 23 M. Vojvoda
- 8 J. Karlström
- 6 O. Zarraga Egaña
- 11 H. Kamara
- 32 J. Ekkelenkamp
- 30 G. Chakvetadze
- 9 K. Davis
Lecce
- 30 W. Falcone
- 17 D. Melo Veiga
- 4 K. Gaspar
- 44 T. Coelho Oliveira
- 25 A. Gallo
- 29 L. Coulibaly
- 79 O. Ngom
- 14 Y. Maleh
- 11 K. Jocelyn N’dri
- 69 W. Geubbels
- 7 A. Ahmed Fatah
Substitutes
- 91 L. Jovanović
- 46 U. Gómez Etxebarria
- 14 J. Abankwah
- 41 B. Mrozek
- 27 C. Kabasele
- 24 J. Piotrowski
- 59 A. Zanoli
- 38 L. Miller
- 20 J. Arizala
- 16 M. Palma
- 4 S. Lovric
- 93 D. Padelli
- 13 N. Bertola
- 45 G. Vinciati
- 99 J. Monteiro
- 2 A. Dembélé
- 9 N. Štulić
- 18 G. Jean
- 50 S. Pierotti
- 3 C. Ndaba
- 77 M. Kaba
- 5 J. Siebert
- 1 M. Bleve
- 28 O. Gorter
- 16 O. Gandelman
- 8 S. Fofana
- 22 F. Esteban Sánchez
- 31 E. Scott
- 32 Alexandru Borbei
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