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Parma – Torino0 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Parma
1.06
Total xG
2.29
Torino
1.24
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Parma | Torino |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.66x league average) | −0.83 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | +0.53 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.44 | +0.44 |
| Attack weakness (0.68x league average) | −0.37 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | +0.15 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.08 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.08 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.3 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Table: Torino is 13th with 7 points from 6 games, while Parma sits 16th with 4 points from 6 games
- Attack: Torino averages 1.17 goals per game in the league this season, while Parma averages 0.67 goals per game
Risks
- Personnel: Torino without N. Fortini, who started in 4 of the last 5 games
- Defence: Parma conceded 1 goal per game in 3 home league games, while Torino conceded 1.33 goals per game in 3 away games
All probabilities
Result
Parma30%
Draw32%
Torino39%
Double chance
Parma or draw61%
Torino or draw70%
No draw68%
Goals
Over 1.568%
Under 1.532%
Over 2.540%
Under 2.560%
Over 3.520%
Under 3.580%
Both teams score
Yes48%
No52%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.06 : 1.24, rounded up only from .915% probability
Other likely scores
0:0
12%
0:1
11%
1:0
9%
1:2
8%
0:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Torino: 6 of 13 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Torino: opponent scores first in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Parma: opponent scores first in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Torino with Ché Adams starting: 1.5 goals/game, without him: 0.9 (13/8 games, last 30)
- Parma: 4 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (4 of 9 total)
Lineups
Parma 3-4-2-1 · Torino 3-5-2
Parma
- 40 E. Corvi
- 34 D. Santos Silva
- 37 M. Troilo
- 15 E. Del Prato
- 27 S. Britschgi
- 10 A. Bernabe Garcia
- 16 M. Keita
- 14 E. Valeri
- 80 G. Fabbian
- 19 E. Toure
- 9 J. Romero
Torino
- 20 L. Estella Perri
- 23 S. Coco-Bassey Oubiña
- 44 A. Ismajli
- 15 P. Comuzzo
- 45 R. Belghali
- 10 N. Vlašić
- 8 R. Mandragora
- 21 D. Santos Bragança
- 77 A. Cacciamani
- 19 C. Adams
- 18 G. Simeone
Substitutes
- 20 M. Frigan
- 8 B. Cremaschi
- 3 N. Ndiaye
- 32 C. Ordoñez
- 29 F. Carboni
- 22 S. Ghidotti
- 30 G. Daffara
- 72 D. Drobnič
- 4 V. Sierro
- 25 T. De Martis
- 25 T. De Martis
- 7 O. Diallo Thiao
- 76 S. Lontani
- 47 A. Salam Konaté
- 7 D. Diallo
- 5 E. Cömert
- 13 R. Rodríguez Araya
- 2 N. Patterson
- 28 K. Fitz-Jim
- 17 S. Kulenovic
- 91 D. Zapata Banguera
- 66 G. Gineitis
- 7 Z. Aboukhlal
- 3 C. Biraghi
- 22 C. Casadei
- 11 G. Oristanio
- 9 P. Pellegri
- 26 D. Mascardi
- 76 L. Siviero
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