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Frosinone – Sassuolo4 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Frosinone
1.50
Total xG
2.91
Sassuolo
1.41
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Frosinone | Sassuolo |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.24x league average) | +0.89 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | −0.60 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | −0.28 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.12 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.08 | |
| Rising form (1.6 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.06 | |
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Frosinone scores 1.67 goals per game in 3 home league matches, Sassuolo concedes 2 per game in 3 away league matches
- Attack: Sassuolo scored 1.67 goals per game in the league this season, Frosinone scored 1.5 per game
- Shots on target: Frosinone averaged 5.6 shots on target per game in their last 5 matches, Sassuolo averaged 5.4 per game
Risks
- Defence: Frosinone allowed 2.25 xG per game in 6 league matches with xG data, but conceded 1.17 goals per game
All probabilities
Result
Frosinone38%
Draw28%
Sassuolo34%
Double chance
Frosinone or draw66%
Sassuolo or draw62%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.556%
Under 2.544%
Over 3.533%
Under 3.567%
Both teams score
Yes60%
No40%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
6%
2:2
6%
4:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Sassuolo: 7 of 19 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Frosinone: 75% of all goals in the first half (12 of 16, last 10 games)
- Sassuolo with Domenico Berardi starting: 1.5 goals/game, without him: 0.9 (17/9 games, last 30)
- Frosinone: 38% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 16)
- Sassuolo: 8 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Frosinone 4-2-3-1 · Sassuolo 4-2-3-1
Frosinone
- 22 L. Palmisani
- 20 A. Oyono Omva Torque
- 2 G. Cittadini
- 30 I. Monterisi
- 79 G. Bracaglia
- 14 G. Calò
- 73 P. Masini
- 7 F. Ghedjemis
- 10 R. Schmid
- 17 G. Kvernadze
- 9 A. Raimondo
Sassuolo
- 49 A. Murić
- 20 I. Brempt
- 26 C. Odenthal
- 15 D. Ćaleta-Car
- 3 J. Doig
- 18 N. Matić
- 50 D. Bakola
- 10 D. Berardi
- 42 K. Thorstvedt
- 45 A. Lauriente
- 94 S. Esposito
Substitutes
- 25 K. Akpoguma
- 11 D. Birligea
- 71 A. Terzić
- 40 S. Fini
- 70 L. Hasa
- 24 A. Zerbin
- 91 S. Desplanches
- 3 G. Calvani
- 12 M. Pisseri
- 16 M. Cichella
- 74 O. Fayed
- 89 T. Bobček
- 34 A. El Azzouzi
- 5 W. Amey
- 90 E. Tchato Mbiayi
- 33 Rafael Burguera
- 17 V. Adžić
- 55 I. Sulemana
- 25 B. Domínguez
- 9 K. Bowie
- 80 S. Turati
- 12 G. Satalino
- 70 E. Pieragnolo
- 5 F. Candé
- 6 S. Walukiewicz
- 19 L. Skjellerup
- 7 C. Volpato
- 35 L. Lipani
- 8 A. Ghion
- 46 S. Cinquegrano
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