Match report →
Napoli – Roma3 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Napoli
1.30
Total xG
2.66
Roma
1.36
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Napoli | Roma |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.49 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.46 | +0.46 |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.46 | |
| Attack strength (1.21x league average) | +0.42 | |
| Rising form (2.8 vs 1.8 season average) | +0.30 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | −0.21 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.13 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 3, 7 places gap) | −0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.07 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 10, 7 places gap) | +0.05 | |
| Paulo Dybala not in squad (0 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Manu Koné not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (2.2 vs 1.6 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Possession: Napoli averaged 54.2% possession per match in the last 5 matches, Roma 55.2% per match
- Form: In the last 5 matches, Napoli recorded 2 wins and 1 draw, Roma 2 wins and 2 draws
Risks
- Table: Roma is 3rd in the league after 7 matches with 17 points, Napoli is 10th with 10 points
- Away: Roma scored 2 goals per match and conceded 0 goals per match in 3 away matches in the league this season
All probabilities
Result
Napoli34%
Draw29%
Roma37%
Double chance
Napoli or draw63%
Roma or draw66%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.550%
Under 2.550%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.30 : 1.36, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
8%
2:1
8%
0:2
6%
2:0
6%
3:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Roma: first goal in 10 of 11 games (91%)
- Roma: 8 wins in 10 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)
- Napoli: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Roma: 4 of 8 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Napoli: 32% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (6 of 19)
Lineups
Napoli 4-3-3 · Roma 3-5-2
Napoli
- 1 A. Meret
- 22 G. Di Lorenzo
- 16 R. Marín Zamora
- 5 B. Badiashile Mukinayi
- 17 M. Olivera Miramontes
- 99 A. Zambo Anguissa
- 11 K. De Bruyne
- 8 S. McTominay
- 21 M. Politano
- 19 R. Højlund
- 70 N. Lang
Roma
- 95 P. Gollini
- 23 G. Mancini
- 5 O. N'Dicka
- 22 M. Hermoso Canseco
- 2 D. Rensch
- 15 M. de Roon
- 4 B. Cristante
- 61 N. Pisilli
- 43 W. França Lima
- 18 M. Malvano
- 14 D. Malen
Substitutes
- 32 V. Milinković Savić
- 14 N. Contini Baranovsky
- 31 S. Beukema
- 37 L. Spinazzola
- 6 B. Gilmour
- 20 L. Lucca
- 26 A. Vergara
- 68 S. Lobotka
- 35 L. Marianucci
- 23 G. Santana do Nascimento
- 3 K. Koulierakis
- 20 N. Molina Lucero
- 26 L. Balerdi Rossa
- 86 R. Mora Carvalho
- 9 S. Castro
- 87 D. Ghilardi
- 32 D. Vásquez Llach
- 70 G. De Marzi
- 77 E. Lulli
- 63 A. Di Nunzio
- 78 M. Camara
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