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Cagliari – Bologna0 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Cagliari
1.02
Total xG
2.30
Bologna
1.28
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Cagliari | Bologna |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.66x league average) | −0.78 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.49 | +0.49 |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.48 | |
| Attack weakness (0.7x league average) | −0.42 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.30 | |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.10 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 8, 7 places gap) | −0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.05 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 8 vs 15, 7 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| 33% of goal output missing (only 94% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.4 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Head-to-head: Bologna won 3 of 4 meetings with Cagliari, with 1 draw
- Attack: Cagliari scored 0.67 goals per game at home in the league this season, Bologna 0.67 goals per game away
Risks
- Personnel: R. Orsolini and R. Piccoli are absent, having scored 2 of the 6 league goals for Bologna players this season (33%)
- Table: Cagliari are 8th in the league this season with 13 points, Bologna are 15th with 5 points
- Form: Cagliari earned 3 wins in their last 5 games, Bologna 1 win in their last 5 games
All probabilities
Result
Cagliari28%
Draw31%
Bologna41%
Double chance
Cagliari or draw59%
Bologna or draw72%
No draw69%
Goals
Over 1.569%
Under 1.531%
Over 2.541%
Under 2.559%
Over 3.520%
Under 3.580%
Both teams score
Yes48%
No52%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.02 : 1.28, rounded up only from .915% probability
Other likely scores
0:0
12%
0:1
11%
1:0
9%
1:2
8%
0:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Cagliari: 42% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (5 of 12)
- Bologna: 4 of 13 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
Lineups
Cagliari 4-3-2-1 · Bologna 3-4-3
Cagliari
- 1 E. Caprile
- 2 J. da Silva Figueiredo Freitas
- 14 A. Deiola
- 15 J. Rodríguez Camejo
- 33 A. Obert
- 4 A. Romano
- 6 H. Winks
- 8 M. Adopo
- 79 Y. Massolin
- 70 D. Maldini
- 31 P. Mendy
Bologna
- 1 Ł. Skorupski
- 36 M. Darmian
- 16 N. Casale
- 3 A. Theate
- 20 N. Zortea
- 19 L. Ferguson
- 4 T. Pobega
- 33 J. Miranda González
- 10 F. Bernardeschi
- 21 J. Odgaard
- 28 N. Cambiaghi
Substitutes
- 28 Y. Sugawara
- 9 K. Omoruyi Benjamin
- 10 J. Fazzini
- 18 M. N'Zola
- 39 A. Fadera
- 21 R. Gagliardini
- 27 J. Liteta
- 12 A. Sherri
- 26 Y. Mina González
- 20 R. Ciervo
- 23 B. Radunović
- 24 G. Aurelio
- 22 R. Kofler
- 32 I. Sulev
- 35 A. Sugamele
- 11 S. Mbangula
- 17 O. El Azzouzi
- 23 A. Alhassane Bonkan
- 5 E. Fauske Helland
- 14 T. Heggem
- 41 M. Vitík
- 29 L. De Silvestri
- 25 M. Pessina
- 6 N. Moro
- 9 A. Dovbyk
- 72 U. Happonen
- 22 J. Enem
- 8 M. Amondarain
- 18 M. Libra Alvarado
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