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Como – Sassuolo2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Como
1.88
Total xG
2.77
Sassuolo
0.90
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Como | Sassuolo |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.56 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.49 | +0.49 |
| Small sample (2 matches), regression to mean | −0.26 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.21 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.14 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.14 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 5, 8 places gap) | −0.08 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 13, 8 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| Nico Paz on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Assane Diao not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Álex Valle on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 26% of goal output missing (only 68% available) | ||
| Sebastiano Esposito on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) |
Key factors
- Table: Como sits 5th in Serie A with 14 points from 7 matches, Sassuolo 13th with 8 points from 7 matches
- Away form: Sassuolo concedes 2.5 goals per match away from home in the league this season
- Head-to-head: Como has won 2 of the 3 meetings against Sassuolo
Risks
- Personnel: Como is missing players who scored 3 of the team's 12 league goals this season (25%)
- Rest days: Como enters with 3 days since their last match
All probabilities
Result
Como59%
Draw25%
Sassuolo16%
Double chance
Como or draw84%
Sassuolo or draw41%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.552%
Under 2.548%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Both teams score
Yes51%
No49%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.88 : 0.90, rounded up only from .912% probability
Other likely scores
2:0
11%
2:1
10%
3:0
7%
3:1
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Sassuolo: 7 of 19 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Sassuolo: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Como: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Sassuolo with Domenico Berardi starting: 1.5 goals/game, without him: 0.9 (18/8 games, last 30)
- Sassuolo: 7 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Como 4-2-3-1 · Sassuolo 4-2-3-1
Como
- 1 J. Butez
- 27 Y. Couto
- 53 W. Kambwala
- 2 M. Kempf
- 16 K. da Silva
- 5 M. Perrone
- 21 S. Ricci
- 8 M. Caqueret
- 7 L. Da Cunha
- 20 M. Baturina
- 9 A. Douvikas
Sassuolo
- 80 S. Turati
- 20 I. Brempt
- 15 D. Ćaleta-Car
- 5 F. Candé
- 33 Rafael Burguera
- 17 V. Adžić
- 18 N. Matić
- 10 D. Berardi
- 50 D. Bakola
- 25 B. Domínguez
- 9 K. Bowie
Substitutes
- 6 L. Milla Manzanares
- 97 R. Lynch Sanchez
- 15 A. Lahdo
- 28 I. Smolčić
- 42 J. Addai
- 4 J. Naveros
- 18 E. Goldaniga
- 13 A. Dossena
- 22 M. Vigorito
- 10 N. Paz Martínez
- 3 ?. Valle Gómez
- 55 I. Sulemana
- 49 A. Murić
- 12 G. Satalino
- 6 S. Walukiewicz
- 3 J. Doig
- 45 A. Lauriente
- 19 L. Skjellerup
- 42 K. Thorstvedt
- 26 C. Odenthal
- 7 C. Volpato
- 77 N. Pierini
- 35 L. Lipani
- 94 S. Esposito
- 8 A. Ghion
- 46 S. Cinquegrano
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