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Udinese – AC Milan0 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Udinese
0.99
Total xG
2.56
AC Milan
1.57
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Udinese | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.52 | +0.52 |
| Attack weakness (0.75x league average) | −0.24 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.20 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.20 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.20 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 5, 12 places gap) | −0.14 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 17, 12 places gap) | +0.09 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.07 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| Adrien Rabiot not in squad (4 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Diego Moreira not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Samuel Chukwueze not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 63% of goal output missing (only 46% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Form: Udinese lost their last 5 matches, while AC Milan achieved 3 wins in their last 5 matches
- Standings: AC Milan is 5th in the league with 15 points from 7 matches, Udinese is 17th with 4 points from 7 matches
- Home/Away: Udinese scored 0.5 goals per match at home in the league this season, AC Milan scored 1.5 per match away
Risks
- Absences: M. Fuentes, D. da Silva Moreira and A. Rabiot are missing, scoring 8 of AC Milan's 13 league goals this season (62%)
- Rest days: AC Milan with 3 days since their last match
All probabilities
Result
Udinese22%
Draw28%
AC Milan49%
Double chance
Udinese or draw51%
AC Milan or draw78%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.547%
Under 2.553%
Over 3.526%
Under 3.574%
Both teams score
Yes51%
No49%
xG score
1:1
From xG 0.99 : 1.57, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
0:2
10%
1:2
9%
2:1
6%
0:3
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- AC Milan: 48% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (10 of 21)
- AC Milan: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Udinese: 43% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 14)
- AC Milan: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (6 of 12 total)
- AC Milan: 6 of 21 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
Lineups
Udinese 3-4-2-1 · AC Milan 3-4-2-1
Udinese
- 40 M. Okoye
- 14 J. Abankwah
- 27 C. Kabasele
- 16 M. Palma
- 23 M. Vojvoda
- 24 J. Piotrowski
- 8 J. Karlström
- 11 H. Kamara
- 30 G. Chakvetadze
- 32 J. Ekkelenkamp
- 9 K. Davis
AC Milan
- 16 M. Maignan
- 5 K. De Winter
- 31 S. Pavlović
- 13 S. Bocoum
- 23 F. Tomori
- 14 L. Modrić
- 30 A. Jasari
- 33 D. Bartesaghi
- 20 O. Giraud-Hutchinson
- 11 C. Pulisic
- 9 G. Ramos
Substitutes
- 91 L. Jovanović
- 46 U. Gómez Etxebarria
- 41 B. Mrozek
- 10 N. Zaniolo
- 38 L. Miller
- 20 J. Arizala
- 6 O. Zarraga Egaña
- 4 S. Lovric
- 93 D. Padelli
- 13 N. Bertola
- 77 E. Ebosse
- 45 G. Vinciati
- 80 Y. Musah
- 2 P. Estupiñán Tenorio
- 96 L. Torriani
- 8 R. Loftus-Cheek
- 73 F. Camarda
- 42 F. Terracciano
- 70 A. Cisse
- 35 V. Vladimirov
- 28 C. Comotto
- 41 L. Bouyer
- 55 S. Cliff Robbie Vos
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