Match report →
Lazio – Parma2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Lazio
1.52
Total xG
2.36
Parma
0.84
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Lazio | Parma |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.41x league average) | −0.84 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.53 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | −0.50 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.50 | +0.50 |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.33 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.33 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 19 vs 2, 17 places gap) | −0.15 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 19, 17 places gap) | +0.11 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.06 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| Strong home record (1.6 vs 1.3 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Table: Lazio rank 2nd in the league with 19 points from 7 matches, Parma are 19th with 4 points from 7 matches
- Home/Away: Lazio score 2 goals per match at home in the league this season, Parma concede 2.33 goals per match away
- Form: Lazio recorded 4 wins in their last 5 matches, Parma suffered 3 defeats in their last 5 matches
Risks
- Defense: Lazio allowed 1.38 xG per match in 7 matches with xG data, but conceded 0.57 goals per match
- Head-to-head: Parma won 1 of the last 4 meetings against Lazio, with 2 draws and 1 loss
All probabilities
Result
Lazio52%
Draw29%
Parma19%
Double chance
Lazio or draw81%
Parma or draw48%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.570%
Under 1.530%
Over 2.542%
Under 2.558%
Over 3.521%
Under 3.579%
Both teams score
Yes46%
No54%
xG score
1:0
From xG 1.52 : 0.84, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
14%
0:0
11%
2:0
11%
2:1
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Parma: opponent scores first in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Parma: 4 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (4 of 9 total)
Lineups
Lazio 4-3-3 · Parma 5-3-2
Lazio
- 35 C. Mandas
- 15 R. Floriani
- 37 J. Šutalo
- 25 O. Nielsen
- 17 N. Varela Tavares
- 16 D. Frattesi
- 21 R. Belahyane
- 24 K. Taylor
- 11 G. Isaksen
- 14 T. Noslin
- 10 M. Zaccagni
Parma
- 40 E. Corvi
- 15 E. Del Prato
- 34 D. Santos Silva
- 37 M. Troilo
- 72 D. Drobnič
- 14 E. Valeri
- 16 M. Keita
- 4 V. Sierro
- 32 C. Ordoñez
- 19 E. Toure
- 9 J. Romero
Substitutes
- 5 D. Doekhi
- 2 D. Monteiro Pinto Leite
- 23 A. Pedraza Sag
- 32 D. Cataldi
- 22 M. Cancellieri
- 29 M. Lazzari
- 7 F. Dele-Bashiru
- 3 L. Pellegrini
- 40 E. Motta
- 76 F. Bordon
- 71 V. Farcomeni
- 63 F. Serra
- 28 A. Przyborek
- 47 D. Renzetti
- 80 G. Fabbian
- 27 S. Britschgi
- 20 M. Frigan
- 8 B. Cremaschi
- 10 A. Bernabe Garcia
- 3 N. Ndiaye
- 29 F. Carboni
- 22 S. Ghidotti
- 30 G. Daffara
- 25 T. De Martis
- 25 T. De Martis
- 7 O. Diallo Thiao
- 76 S. Lontani
- 47 A. Salam Konaté
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