Match report →
Atalanta – Frosinone4 : 4
Why the model thinks so
Atalanta
1.96
Total xG
3.18
Frosinone
1.22
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Atalanta | Frosinone |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.50 | +0.50 |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.47 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | −0.16 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.05 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.05 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.02 | |
| Weak away record (1.4 vs 1.8 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Atalanta scores 1.75 goals per game at home in the league, Frosinone concedes 1.33 goals per game away
- Defence: Frosinone allowed 2.16 xG per game in 5 matches with xG data, while Atalanta generated 1.73 xG per game
Risks
- Table: Frosinone is 6th in the league with 13 points from 7 matches, Atalanta is 11th with 9 points
- Personnel: Atalanta is missing injured players who scored 20% of their players' league goals this season (2 of 10 goals)
All probabilities
Result
Atalanta53%
Draw24%
Frosinone22%
Double chance
Atalanta or draw78%
Frosinone or draw47%
No draw76%
Goals
Over 1.584%
Under 1.516%
Over 2.562%
Under 2.538%
Over 3.539%
Under 3.561%
Both teams score
Yes62%
No38%
xG score
2:1
From xG 1.96 : 1.22, rounded up only from .910% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
11%
2:0
8%
3:1
6%
1:2
6%
4:4
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Frosinone: 75% of all goals in the first half (15 of 20, last 11 games)
- Atalanta: 6 of 15 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Atalanta with Davide Zappacosta starting: 1.5 goals/game, without him: 0.6 (20/5 games, last 30)
- Frosinone: 30% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (6 of 20)
Lineups
Atalanta 4-2-3-1 · Frosinone 4-2-3-1
Atalanta
- 29 M. Carnesecchi
- 16 R. Bellanova
- 31 T. Kristensen
- 40 R. Obrić
- 77 D. Zappacosta
- 70 G. Gaetano
- 13 É. dos Santos Lourenço da Silva
- 99 E. Elmas
- 17 C. De Ketelaere
- 11 J. Rowe
- 90 N. Krstović
Frosinone
- 22 L. Palmisani
- 20 A. Oyono Omva Torque
- 3 G. Calvani
- 2 G. Cittadini
- 79 G. Bracaglia
- 14 G. Calò
- 73 P. Masini
- 7 F. Ghedjemis
- 10 R. Schmid
- 17 G. Kvernadze
- 9 A. Raimondo
Substitutes
- 47 L. Bernasconi
- 59 N. Zalewski
- 57 M. Sportiello
- 8 M. Pašalić
- 9 G. Scamacca
- 10 L. Samardžić
- 41 J. Idele
- 51 M. Sonzogni
- 53 M. Plaia
- 25 K. Akpoguma
- 11 D. Birligea
- 71 A. Terzić
- 40 S. Fini
- 70 L. Hasa
- 24 A. Zerbin
- 91 S. Desplanches
- 12 M. Pisseri
- 16 M. Cichella
- 30 I. Monterisi
- 74 O. Fayed
- 89 T. Bobček
- 34 A. El Azzouzi
- 5 W. Amey
- 90 E. Tchato Mbiayi
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