Match report →
Torino – Monza3 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Torino
1.37
Total xG
2.78
Monza
1.41
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Torino | Monza |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.46 | +0.46 |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.32 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.20 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.12 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.09 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.09 | |
| Rising form (1.6 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.09 | |
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Attack: Torino averages 1.43 goals per match in the league this season, Monza averages 1.86
- Shots: Monza averaged 6.8 shots on target per match in their last 5 matches, Torino 3.4
- Head-to-head: In 3 meetings, there was 1 win for Torino, 1 win for Monza and 1 draw
Risks
- Away: Monza concedes 2.75 goals per match away from home in the league this season in 4 matches
- xG: Torino generated 1.09 xG per match in 5 matches with xG data, but scored 1.6 goals per match
All probabilities
Result
Torino35%
Draw29%
Monza37%
Double chance
Torino or draw63%
Monza or draw65%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.553%
Under 2.548%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Both teams score
Yes58%
No42%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.37 : 1.41, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
8%
2:1
8%
0:2
6%
2:0
6%
3:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Torino: 6 of 16 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Torino with Ché Adams starting: 1.6 goals/game, without him: 0.9 (14/8 games, last 30)
- Torino: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Monza: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 10 games)
Lineups
Torino 3-1-4-2 · Monza 3-4-2-1
Torino
- 20 L. Estella Perri
- 23 S. Coco-Bassey Oubiña
- 44 A. Ismajli
- 15 P. Comuzzo
- 8 R. Mandragora
- 45 R. Belghali
- 10 N. Vlašić
- 28 K. Fitz-Jim
- 77 A. Cacciamani
- 18 G. Simeone
- 19 C. Adams
Monza
- 1 N. Törnqvist
- 2 S. Goglichidze
- 3 L. Lucchesi
- 44 A. Carboni
- 19 S. Birindelli
- 8 M. Foe Ondoa
- 14 E. Akinsanmiro
- 7 R. Chaby Mangas
- 47 D. Carvalho
- 46 J. Robinson
- 9 G. Pereira De Sousa
Substitutes
- 5 E. Cömert
- 2 N. Patterson
- 21 D. Santos Bragança
- 17 S. Kulenovic
- 91 D. Zapata Banguera
- 66 G. Gineitis
- 7 Z. Aboukhlal
- 3 C. Biraghi
- 22 C. Casadei
- 11 G. Oristanio
- 9 P. Pellegri
- 26 D. Mascardi
- 76 L. Siviero
- 60 E. Kouadio
- 16 C. Ngonge
- 27 I. Touré
- 10 P. Cutrone
- 90 M. Folorunsho
- 6 V. Ivaylov Antov
- 20 D. Thiam
- 43 A. Strajnar
- 24 A. Bakoune
- 28 A. Colpani
- 21 L. Colombo
- 26 P. Ciurria
- 11 O. Forson
- 22 E. Zeballos
- 80 M. Mout
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →