Match report →
Lecce – Juventus0 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Lecce
0.90
Total xG
2.73
Juventus
1.83
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Lecce | Juventus |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.39x league average) | +1.40 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | −0.99 | |
| Attack weakness (0.69x league average) | −0.76 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.54 | +0.54 |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.48 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.26 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.15 | |
| Rising form (1.4 vs 0.9 season average) | +0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.12 | |
| Declining form (1.4 vs 1.8 season average) | −0.12 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.06 | |
| Lassana Coulibaly not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Ivan Ilić not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 10% of goal output missing (only 76% available) | ||
| Francisco Conceição not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) |
Key factors
- Defense: Lecce concedes 2.67 goals per game at home in the league this season, while Juventus scores 1.33 goals per game away
- Possession: Juventus averages 57.8% possession and 16.2 shots in recent games, compared to 43.6% and 11.8 shots for Lecce
Risks
- Rest days: Juventus with 3 days since their last match
- Squad: F. Conceição and N. González are missing, having scored 2 of the 9 league goals for Juventus players this season (22%)
All probabilities
Result
Lecce17%
Draw25%
Juventus58%
Double chance
Lecce or draw42%
Juventus or draw83%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.551%
Under 2.549%
Over 3.529%
Under 3.571%
Both teams score
Yes51%
No49%
xG score
1:1
From xG 0.90 : 1.83, rounded up only from .912% probability
Other likely scores
0:2
11%
1:2
10%
0:3
7%
1:3
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Juventus: 7 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Sassuolo: 2 goals (82', 90+1')
- Juventus: 7 of 20 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Lecce: 33% of all goals between minutes 1-15 (5 of 15)
Lineups
Lecce 4-3-3 · Juventus 3-1-4-2
Lecce
- 30 W. Falcone
- 17 D. Melo Veiga
- 4 K. Gaspar
- 44 T. Coelho Oliveira
- 25 A. Gallo
- 77 M. Kaba
- 79 O. Ngom
- 14 Y. Maleh
- 11 K. Jocelyn N’dri
- 69 W. Geubbels
- 7 A. Ahmed Fatah
Juventus
- 25 G. Vicario
- 4 F. Gatti
- 3 G. Bremer Silva Nascimento
- 26 J. Lucumí Bonilla
- 12 D. Soares de Paulo
- 15 P. Kalulu Kyatengwa
- 22 W. McKennie
- 8 T. Koopmeiners
- 20 A. Cambiaso
- 27 N. Woltemade
- 9 R. Kolo Muani
Substitutes
- 99 J. Monteiro
- 2 A. Dembélé
- 9 N. Štulić
- 18 G. Jean
- 3 C. Ndaba
- 5 J. Siebert
- 1 M. Bleve
- 28 O. Gorter
- 16 O. Gandelman
- 8 S. Fofana
- 22 F. Esteban Sánchez
- 31 E. Scott
- 32 Alexandru Borbei
- 13 J. Boga
- 29 P. Sarr
- 32 J. Cabal Murillo
- 11 E. Zhegrova
- 24 D. Rugani
- 23 C. Pinsoglio
- 6 L. Kelly
- 17 K. Alajbegović
- 33 N. Murara Neto
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