Match report →
Genoa – Venezia1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Genoa
1.37
Total xG
2.60
Venezia
1.23
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Genoa | Venezia |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (2.3 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.86 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.50 | +0.50 |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.21 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.12 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.09 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.09 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.05 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | ||
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Form: Genoa won 2 of their last 5 matches, while Venezia suffered 4 defeats in their last 5 matches
- Away: Venezia conceded 2.67 goals per match in 3 away matches in the league this season
Risks
- Home: Genoa conceded 2.0 goals per match in 4 home matches in the league this season
- Squad: Genoa without K. Ehizibue, who started in 3 of the last 5 matches
All probabilities
Result
Genoa39%
Draw30%
Venezia32%
Double chance
Genoa or draw68%
Venezia or draw61%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.575%
Under 1.525%
Over 2.548%
Under 2.552%
Over 3.527%
Under 3.573%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.37 : 1.23, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
0:2
6%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Genoa: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)
Lineups
Genoa 3-4-2-1 · Venezia 3-5-2
Genoa
- 1 J. Bijlow
- 34 S. Otoa
- 5 L. Skiri Oestigaard
- 22 J. Vásquez Ibarra
- 77 M. Ellertsson
- 25 H. Traorè
- 71 S. Wiafe
- 2 M. Mitaj
- 10 J. Messias
- 92 S. El Shaarawy
- 18 M. Osmajić
Venezia
- 1 F. Stankovic
- 25 R. Halhal
- 2 M. Moreno
- 15 J. Nunes Jesus
- 18 A. Hainaut
- 71 E. Pérez Muñoz
- 19 S. Sohm
- 26 T. Bašić
- 5 R. Haps
- 10 J. Zamora
- 45 A. Adams
Substitutes
- 11 F. Meichtry
- 16 C. Drameh
- 8 T. Baldanzi
- 39 D. Sommariva
- 27 A. Marcandalli
- 29 L. Colombo
- 20 S. Sabelli
- 32 M. Frendrup
- 9 V. Carvalho Oliveira
- 4 A. Amorim de Freitas Filho
- 99 F. Stolz
- 21 R. de Souza Júnior
- 14 L. Klišys
- 31 D. Puczka
- 8 L. Dabo
- 70 P. Mazzocchi
- 56 K. Lisman
- 7 A. Rrahmani
- 77 A. Fernández Casino
- 21 T. Helgason
- 17 A. Bella-Kotchap
- 96 L. Montipò
- 6 G. Busio
- 32 J. Duncan
- 3 J. Schingtienne
- 20 S. Sagrado
- 30 M. Dagasso
- 95 A. Gomes Furtado
- 29 L. Lauberbach
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