Match report →
Inter – Fiorentina2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Inter
2.54
Total xG
3.44
Fiorentina
0.90
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Inter | Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.99x league average) | +1.47 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.76 | |
| Attack weakness (0.55x league average) | −0.58 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.50 | +0.50 |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.44 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 18, 16 places gap) | +0.18 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2 goals/match) | +0.17 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.17 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 18 vs 2, 16 places gap) | −0.16 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.02 | |
| Piotr Zieliński on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (3 vs 2.3 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.4 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Inter average 3.75 goals per game at home in the league this season, Fiorentina concede 2.67 per game away
- Table: Inter sit 2nd in the league this season with 19 points from 7 games, Fiorentina are 18th with 4 points
Risks
- Away: Fiorentina average 1.67 goals per game away in the league this season, Inter concede 1.5 per game at home
All probabilities
Result
Inter72%
Draw18%
Fiorentina10%
Double chance
Inter or draw90%
Fiorentina or draw28%
No draw82%
Goals
Over 1.587%
Under 1.513%
Over 2.567%
Under 2.533%
Over 3.545%
Under 3.555%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
xG score
2:1
From xG 2.54 : 0.90, rounded up only from .99% probability
Other likely scores
2:0
10%
3:0
9%
1:1
8%
3:1
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Inter: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Inter: 3 comebacks in 5 games after trailing past minute 75 (5 points rescued)
- Ange-Yoan Bonny: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
Lineups
Inter 3-5-2 · Fiorentina 4-3-3
Inter
- 49 I. Provedel
- 31 Y. Bisseck
- 25 M. Akanji
- 95 A. Bastoni
- 17 A. Diouf
- 23 N. Barella
- 20 H. Çalhanoğlu
- 22 H. Mkhitaryan
- 30 C. Zopalato Neves
- 94 F. Esposito
- 9 M. Thuram
Fiorentina
- 43 D. de Gea Quintana
- 20 A. Jiménez Sánchez
- 3 R. Drăgușin
- 5 M. Pongracic
- 21 V. Valdepeñas Talavera
- 27 C. Ndour
- 44 N. Fagioli
- 4 M. Brescianini
- 30 F. Mastantuono
- 32 M. Pellegrino Casalanguila
- 25 A. Njie
Substitutes
- 99 D. Spence
- 5 A. Stankovic
- 14 A. Bonny
- 8 P. Sučić
- 7 P. Zieliński
- 12 R. Di Gennaro
- 32 F. Dimarco
- 1 J. Martínez Riera
- 51 L. Jakirović
- 48 M. Mosconi
- 53 M. Lavelli
- 46 L. Bovio
- 29 D. Gnonto
- 23 N. Bercique Gomes Betuncal
- 28 P. Pereira Gonçalves
- 17 J. Neto Lopes
- 19 L. Lezzerini
- 53 O. Christensen
- 2 D. Cordeiro dos Santos
- 42 C. Inao Oulaï
- 33 V. Fernandes Santos Lopes
- 72 B. Mazzeo
- 73 A. Pirrò
- 74 A. Ademi
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