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AC Milan – Bologna2 : 4
Why the model thinks so
AC Milan
1.55
Total xG
2.55
Bologna
1.00
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | AC Milan | Bologna |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.64 | |
| Attack weakness (0.68x league average) | −0.63 | |
| High-scoring league (3.1 goals/match) | +0.62 | +0.62 |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.46 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.40 | |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.23 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.13 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.13 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 5, 8 places gap) | −0.09 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 13, 8 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.06 | |
| Adrien Rabiot not in squad (4 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Diego Moreira not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Christian Pulisic on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 40% of goal output missing (only 47% available) | ||
| Juan Miranda on the bench (0 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Nicolò Cambiaghi on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (2.1 vs 1.6 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- League: AC Milan is undefeated in the league this season after 8 games (5 wins, 3 draws), Bologna lost 4 of 8 games
- Shots: AC Milan had 5.8 shots on target per game in their last 5 games, Bologna 3.4 per game
- Table: AC Milan ranks 5th in the league with 18 points from 8 games, Bologna is 13th with 8 points
Risks
- Personnel: M. Fuentes, D. da Silva Moreira, A. Rabiot are out; they scored 8 of AC Milan's 15 league goals this season (53%)
- Rest days: AC Milan with 3 days since their last match
All probabilities
Result
AC Milan49%
Draw29%
Bologna23%
Double chance
AC Milan or draw77%
Bologna or draw51%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.547%
Under 2.553%
Over 3.525%
Under 3.575%
Both teams score
Yes51%
No49%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.55 : 1.00, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
2:0
9%
2:1
9%
1:2
6%
3:0
5%
2:4
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- AC Milan: 52% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (11 of 21)
- AC Milan: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- AC Milan: 6 of 21 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
Lineups
AC Milan 4-2-3-1 · Bologna 3-4-2-1
AC Milan
- 16 M. Maignan
- 23 F. Tomori
- 5 K. De Winter
- 31 S. Pavlović
- 2 P. Estupiñán Tenorio
- 80 Y. Musah
- 30 A. Jasari
- 20 O. Giraud-Hutchinson
- 70 A. Cisse
- 33 D. Bartesaghi
- 9 G. Ramos
Bologna
- 1 Ł. Skorupski
- 36 M. Darmian
- 16 N. Casale
- 3 A. Theate
- 20 N. Zortea
- 19 L. Ferguson
- 4 T. Pobega
- 23 A. Alhassane Bonkan
- 10 F. Bernardeschi
- 11 S. Mbangula
- 21 J. Odgaard
Substitutes
- 14 L. Modrić
- 11 C. Pulisic
- 96 L. Torriani
- 73 F. Camarda
- 42 F. Terracciano
- 35 V. Vladimirov
- 13 S. Bocoum
- 28 C. Comotto
- 41 L. Bouyer
- 55 S. Cliff Robbie Vos
- 40 L. Ossola
- 47 N. Perera
- 48 E. Cissé
- 49 Luca Menon
- 17 O. El Azzouzi
- 5 E. Fauske Helland
- 14 T. Heggem
- 41 M. Vitík
- 28 N. Cambiaghi
- 25 M. Pessina
- 6 N. Moro
- 33 J. Miranda González
- 9 A. Dovbyk
- 72 U. Happonen
- 8 M. Amondarain
- 18 M. Libra Alvarado
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