Match report →
Fiorentina – Atalanta2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Fiorentina
1.32
Total xG
2.66
Atalanta
1.34
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Fiorentina | Atalanta |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.73x league average) | −0.63 | |
| High-scoring league (3.1 goals/match) | +0.62 | +0.62 |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.45 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.31 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.25 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.25 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.24 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 19 vs 12, 7 places gap) | −0.10 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 12 vs 19, 7 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.02 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Strong home record (1.8 vs 1.4 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.6 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Fiorentina scored 0.75 goals per game in 4 league home games, Atalanta 1.0 per game in 3 away games
- Defense: Fiorentina conceded 2.25 goals per game in 4 league home games, Atalanta 2.33 per game in 3 away games
Risks
- Standings: Atalanta is 12th in the league with 10 points from 8 games, Fiorentina is 19th with 4 points
- Shots: Atalanta averaged 6.4 shots on target per game in their last 5 games, Fiorentina 4.6 per game
All probabilities
Result
Fiorentina35%
Draw29%
Atalanta36%
Double chance
Fiorentina or draw64%
Atalanta or draw65%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.550%
Under 2.550%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.32 : 1.34, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
8%
2:1
8%
0:2
6%
2:0
6%
2:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Fiorentina: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Atalanta: 7 of 18 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Atalanta with Davide Zappacosta starting: 1.7 goals/game, without him: 0.6 (20/5 games, last 30)
- Atalanta: 61% of all goals in the first half (11 of 18, last 12 games)
Lineups
Fiorentina 4-3-3 · Atalanta 4-2-3-1
Fiorentina
- 43 D. de Gea Quintana
- 20 A. Jiménez Sánchez
- 3 R. Drăgușin
- 33 V. Fernandes Santos Lopes
- 17 J. Neto Lopes
- 27 C. Ndour
- 44 N. Fagioli
- 4 M. Brescianini
- 30 F. Mastantuono
- 32 M. Pellegrino Casalanguila
- 25 A. Njie
Atalanta
- 29 M. Carnesecchi
- 77 D. Zappacosta
- 31 T. Kristensen
- 40 R. Obrić
- 47 L. Bernasconi
- 70 G. Gaetano
- 13 É. dos Santos Lourenço da Silva
- 99 E. Elmas
- 17 C. De Ketelaere
- 59 N. Zalewski
- 90 N. Krstović
Substitutes
- 29 D. Gnonto
- 23 N. Bercique Gomes Betuncal
- 28 P. Pereira Gonçalves
- 19 L. Lezzerini
- 53 O. Christensen
- 2 D. Cordeiro dos Santos
- 21 V. Valdepeñas Talavera
- 42 C. Inao Oulaï
- 72 B. Mazzeo
- 73 A. Pirrò
- 7 K. Sulemana
- 42 G. Scalvini
- 57 M. Sportiello
- 8 M. Pašalić
- 10 L. Samardžić
- 11 J. Rowe
- 41 J. Idele
- 51 M. Sonzogni
- 53 M. Plaia
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