Match report →
Torino – Como1 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Torino
1.01
Total xG
2.79
Como
1.78
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Torino | Como |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.52 | +0.52 |
| Attack weakness (0.75x league average) | −0.27 | |
| Rising form (2.8 vs 2.2 season average) | +0.18 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.14 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.14 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.12 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.06 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| Rolando Mandragora not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Martin Baturina on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Kaiki on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 11% of goal output missing (only 100% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.7 vs 2.2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Away: Como averages 2 goals per away match in the league this season, while Torino concedes 1.75 per home match
- Table: Como sits 5th in the league with 17 points from 8 matches, Torino is 8th with 13 points
- Head-to-head: Como won 3 of the previous 4 meetings against Torino
Risks
- Personnel: A. Diao Diaoune and M. Liberali are absent for Como, having scored 3 of the team's 14 league goals this season (21%)
- Form: Torino picked up 3 wins from their last 5 matches, averaging 1.8 goals per match
- Schedule: Como with 3 days since their last match
All probabilities
Result
Torino20%
Draw26%
Como54%
Double chance
Torino or draw46%
Como or draw80%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.553%
Under 2.547%
Over 3.531%
Under 3.569%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.01 : 1.78, rounded up only from .912% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
10%
0:2
10%
1:3
6%
0:3
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Torino with Ché Adams starting: 1.7 goals/game, without him: 0.9 (15/8 games, last 30)
- Como: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Torino: 5 of 17 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
Lineups
Torino 3-5-2 · Como 4-2-3-1
Torino
- 20 L. Estella Perri
- 23 S. Coco-Bassey Oubiña
- 44 A. Ismajli
- 15 P. Comuzzo
- 45 R. Belghali
- 10 N. Vlašić
- 21 D. Santos Bragança
- 28 K. Fitz-Jim
- 77 A. Cacciamani
- 18 G. Simeone
- 19 C. Adams
Como
- 97 R. Lynch Sanchez
- 27 Y. Couto
- 4 J. Naveros
- 2 M. Kempf
- 3 ?. Valle Gómez
- 5 M. Perrone
- 6 L. Milla Manzanares
- 7 L. Da Cunha
- 10 N. Paz Martínez
- 8 M. Caqueret
- 9 A. Douvikas
Substitutes
- 5 E. Cömert
- 2 N. Patterson
- 17 S. Kulenovic
- 91 D. Zapata Banguera
- 66 G. Gineitis
- 7 Z. Aboukhlal
- 6 E. İlkhan
- 3 C. Biraghi
- 22 C. Casadei
- 11 G. Oristanio
- 9 P. Pellegri
- 26 D. Mascardi
- 76 L. Siviero
- 53 W. Kambwala
- 15 A. Lahdo
- 21 S. Ricci
- 20 M. Baturina
- 28 I. Smolčić
- 42 J. Addai
- 1 J. Butez
- 18 E. Goldaniga
- 13 A. Dossena
- 22 M. Vigorito
- 16 K. da Silva
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