Match report →
Venezia – Inter0 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Venezia
0.94
Total xG
3.53
Inter
2.58
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Venezia | Inter |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.58x league average) | +1.63 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | −0.91 | |
| High-scoring league (3.1 goals/match) | +0.62 | +0.62 |
| Defensive weakness (2.2 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | +0.57 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 20, 18 places gap) | +0.18 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 20 vs 2, 18 places gap) | −0.17 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.14 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.2 season average) | −0.14 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.07 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.02 | |
| 23% of goal output missing (only 71% available) | ||
| Hakan Çalhanoğlu not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Nicolò Barella not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Pio Esposito on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (1.6 vs 1.2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Table: Inter is 2nd in the league with 22 points from 8 matches, Venezia is 20th with 3 points from 8 matches
- Form: Inter recorded 4 wins from their last 5 matches, while Venezia suffered 4 defeats in their last 5 matches
- Attack: Inter averaged 8.4 shots on target per match in their last 5 matches, Venezia 4.4 per match
Risks
- Rest days: Inter with 3 days since their last match
- Away: Inter scored 2 goals per match away in the league this season, compared to 3.4 per match at home
All probabilities
Result
Venezia11%
Draw18%
Inter72%
Double chance
Venezia or draw28%
Inter or draw89%
No draw82%
Goals
Over 1.588%
Under 1.512%
Over 2.568%
Under 2.532%
Over 3.547%
Under 3.553%
Both teams score
Yes57%
No43%
xG score
1:2
From xG 0.94 : 2.58, rounded up only from .99% probability
Other likely scores
0:3
8%
1:3
8%
0:4
5%
1:4
5%
0:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Inter: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Inter: 4 comebacks in 6 games after trailing past minute 75 (8 points rescued)
- Venezia: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Ange-Yoan Bonny: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
Lineups
Venezia 3-5-2 · Inter 3-5-2
Venezia
- 1 F. Stankovic
- 25 R. Halhal
- 2 M. Moreno
- 15 J. Nunes Jesus
- 18 A. Hainaut
- 71 E. Pérez Muñoz
- 19 S. Sohm
- 21 T. Helgason
- 70 P. Mazzocchi
- 45 A. Adams
- 29 L. Lauberbach
Inter
- 49 I. Provedel
- 31 Y. Bisseck
- 95 A. Bastoni
- 30 C. Zopalato Neves
- 17 A. Diouf
- 8 P. Sučić
- 5 A. Stankovic
- 7 P. Zieliński
- 32 F. Dimarco
- 14 A. Bonny
- 9 M. Thuram
Substitutes
- 8 L. Dabo
- 56 K. Lisman
- 7 A. Rrahmani
- 77 A. Fernández Casino
- 26 T. Bašić
- 17 A. Bella-Kotchap
- 96 L. Montipò
- 5 R. Haps
- 6 G. Busio
- 32 J. Duncan
- 10 J. Zamora
- 3 J. Schingtienne
- 20 S. Sagrado
- 30 M. Dagasso
- 99 D. Spence
- 94 F. Esposito
- 25 M. Akanji
- 22 H. Mkhitaryan
- 12 R. Di Gennaro
- 23 N. Barella
- 1 J. Martínez Riera
- 20 H. Çalhanoğlu
- 51 L. Jakirović
- 48 M. Mosconi
- 53 M. Lavelli
- 46 L. Bovio
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