Match report →
Roma – Cagliari4 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Roma
2.03
Total xG
2.76
Cagliari
0.73
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Roma | Cagliari |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.46x league average) | +0.65 | |
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.63 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.52 | +0.52 |
| Rising form (3 vs 1.8 season average) | +0.37 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.36 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.19 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.12 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.1 season average) | −0.10 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 9, 6 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 9 vs 3, 6 places gap) | −0.05 | |
| Donyell Malen on the bench (6 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Wesley on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 36% of goal output missing (only 68% available) | ||
| Daniel Maldini on the bench (4 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Paul Mendy not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 83% of goal output missing (only 32% available) | ||
| Strong home record (2.4 vs 1.8 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Roma averages 2.5 goals per match at home in the league this season, Cagliari averages 1 goal per match away
- Standings: Roma ranks 3rd in the league with 18 points from 8 matches, Cagliari ranks 9th with 13 points from 8 matches
- Shots on target: Roma recorded 5.6 shots on target per match in the last 5 matches, Cagliari 3 per match
Risks
- Rest days: Roma with 3 days since their last match
- Defense: Roma conceded 1.4 goals per match in the last 5 matches, compared to 0.75 per match in the league this season
All probabilities
Result
Roma67%
Draw22%
Cagliari11%
Double chance
Roma or draw89%
Cagliari or draw33%
No draw78%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.552%
Under 2.548%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Both teams score
Yes46%
No54%
xG score
2:0
From xG 2.03 : 0.73, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
11%
2:1
10%
3:0
9%
3:1
6%
4:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Roma: first goal in 9 of 11 games (82%)
- Roma: 5 of 11 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Cagliari: 42% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (5 of 12)
Lineups
Roma 3-5-2 · Cagliari 3-4-2-1
Roma
- 95 P. Gollini
- 23 G. Mancini
- 5 O. N'Dicka
- 3 K. Koulierakis
- 77 E. Lulli
- 4 B. Cristante
- 15 M. de Roon
- 61 N. Pisilli
- 20 N. Molina Lucero
- 18 M. Malvano
- 9 S. Castro
Cagliari
- 1 E. Caprile
- 2 J. da Silva Figueiredo Freitas
- 26 Y. Mina González
- 15 J. Rodríguez Camejo
- 28 Y. Sugawara
- 4 A. Romano
- 14 A. Deiola
- 33 A. Obert
- 8 M. Adopo
- 39 A. Fadera
- 18 M. N'Zola
Substitutes
- 26 L. Balerdi Rossa
- 14 D. Malen
- 86 R. Mora Carvalho
- 87 D. Ghilardi
- 43 W. França Lima
- 32 D. Vásquez Llach
- 2 D. Rensch
- 22 M. Hermoso Canseco
- 70 G. De Marzi
- 63 A. Di Nunzio
- 78 M. Camara
- 9 K. Omoruyi Benjamin
- 70 D. Maldini
- 10 J. Fazzini
- 21 R. Gagliardini
- 27 J. Liteta
- 12 A. Sherri
- 79 Y. Massolin
- 20 R. Ciervo
- 23 B. Radunović
- 24 G. Aurelio
- 22 R. Kofler
- 19 Y. Trepy
- 32 I. Sulev
- 31 P. Mendy
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