Match report →
Sassuolo – Lazio2 : 6
Why the model thinks so
Sassuolo
1.25
Total xG
2.50
Lazio
1.25
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Sassuolo | Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.66x league average) | −0.59 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.52 | +0.52 |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.38 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.32 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.32 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 2, 12 places gap) | −0.17 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 14, 12 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.04 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.03 | |
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Sassuolo averages 2 goals per game at home in the league this season, Lazio 2 per game away
- Shots: Sassuolo averages 4.8 shots on target per game in the last 5 games, Lazio 4.6 per game
Risks
- Standings: Lazio ranks 2nd in the league after 8 games with 22 points, Sassuolo 14th with 8 points
- Form: Lazio has 4 wins from the last 5 games, Sassuolo 1 win
All probabilities
Result
Sassuolo35%
Draw30%
Lazio35%
Double chance
Sassuolo or draw65%
Lazio or draw65%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.573%
Under 1.527%
Over 2.546%
Under 2.554%
Over 3.524%
Under 3.576%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.26 : 1.25, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
8%
1:2
8%
2:0
6%
0:2
6%
2:6
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Sassuolo: 7 of 18 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Sassuolo with Domenico Berardi starting: 1.4 goals/game, without him: 0.9 (19/7 games, last 30)
- Sassuolo: 7 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Sassuolo 4-2-3-1 · Lazio 4-3-3
Sassuolo
- 80 S. Turati
- 46 S. Cinquegrano
- 26 C. Odenthal
- 15 D. Ćaleta-Car
- 3 J. Doig
- 35 L. Lipani
- 50 D. Bakola
- 10 D. Berardi
- 42 K. Thorstvedt
- 45 A. Lauriente
- 94 S. Esposito
Lazio
- 35 C. Mandas
- 15 R. Floriani
- 37 J. Šutalo
- 2 D. Monteiro Pinto Leite
- 17 N. Varela Tavares
- 16 D. Frattesi
- 21 R. Belahyane
- 24 K. Taylor
- 11 G. Isaksen
- 14 T. Noslin
- 10 M. Zaccagni
Substitutes
- 33 Rafael Burguera
- 17 V. Adžić
- 55 I. Sulemana
- 25 B. Domínguez
- 9 K. Bowie
- 20 I. Brempt
- 18 N. Matić
- 49 A. Murić
- 21 J. Idzes
- 12 G. Satalino
- 5 F. Candé
- 6 S. Walukiewicz
- 7 C. Volpato
- 77 N. Pierini
- 8 A. Ghion
- 5 D. Doekhi
- 23 A. Pedraza Sag
- 25 O. Nielsen
- 32 D. Cataldi
- 22 M. Cancellieri
- 29 M. Lazzari
- 7 F. Dele-Bashiru
- 3 L. Pellegrini
- 9 A. Pinamonti
- 40 E. Motta
- 71 V. Farcomeni
- 63 F. Serra
- 28 A. Przyborek
- 47 D. Renzetti
- 33 R. Bordon
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →