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Frosinone – Lecce5 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Frosinone
1.99
Total xG
3.11
Lecce
1.12
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Frosinone | Lecce |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.1 goals/match) | +0.62 | +0.62 |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.33 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.15 | |
| Rising form (1.4 vs 0.9 season average) | +0.15 | |
| Attack strength (1.23x league average) | +0.08 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 7, 7 places gap) | −0.08 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 14, 7 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.06 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.05 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | +0.02 | |
| Gabriele Bracaglia on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Lassana Coulibaly not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Ivan Ilić not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 46% of goal output missing (only 64% available) |
Key factors
- Table: Frosinone sit 7th in the league with 14 points after 8 matches, Lecce are 14th with 9 points
- Attack: Frosinone scored 2.12 goals per game in the league this season, Lecce 1.12 goals per game
- Shots: Frosinone averaged 6.6 shots on target per game in the last 5 matches, Lecce 5.2 per game
Risks
- Away: Lecce conceded 1 goal per game away in the league this season across 4 matches
- Defense: Frosinone allowed 2.60 xG per game in the last 5 matches with xG data
All probabilities
Result
Frosinone56%
Draw24%
Lecce20%
Double chance
Frosinone or draw80%
Lecce or draw44%
No draw76%
Goals
Over 1.583%
Under 1.517%
Over 2.560%
Under 2.540%
Over 3.538%
Under 3.562%
Both teams score
Yes59%
No41%
xG score
2:1
From xG 1.99 : 1.12, rounded up only from .910% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
11%
2:0
9%
3:1
7%
3:0
6%
5:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Frosinone: 71% of all goals in the first half (17 of 24, last 12 games)
- Lecce: 38% of all goals between minutes 1-15 (5 of 13)
- Frosinone: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Frosinone 4-2-3-1 · Lecce 3-4-2-1
Frosinone
- 22 L. Palmisani
- 20 A. Oyono Omva Torque
- 3 G. Calvani
- 30 I. Monterisi
- 71 A. Terzić
- 16 M. Cichella
- 14 G. Calò
- 7 F. Ghedjemis
- 10 R. Schmid
- 17 G. Kvernadze
- 9 A. Raimondo
Lecce
- 30 W. Falcone
- 5 J. Siebert
- 44 T. Coelho Oliveira
- 3 C. Ndaba
- 17 D. Melo Veiga
- 79 O. Ngom
- 14 Y. Maleh
- 25 A. Gallo
- 16 O. Gandelman
- 99 J. Monteiro
- 22 F. Esteban Sánchez
Substitutes
- 25 K. Akpoguma
- 11 D. Birligea
- 40 S. Fini
- 73 P. Masini
- 70 L. Hasa
- 24 A. Zerbin
- 91 S. Desplanches
- 2 G. Cittadini
- 79 G. Bracaglia
- 12 M. Pisseri
- 74 O. Fayed
- 89 T. Bobček
- 34 A. El Azzouzi
- 5 W. Amey
- 90 E. Tchato Mbiayi
- 69 W. Geubbels
- 7 A. Ahmed Fatah
- 2 A. Dembélé
- 9 N. Štulić
- 18 G. Jean
- 77 M. Kaba
- 11 K. Jocelyn N’dri
- 1 M. Bleve
- 28 O. Gorter
- 33 P. Penev
- 8 S. Fofana
- 34 H. Lærke
- 31 E. Scott
- 32 Alexandru Borbei
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