Match report →
Parma – Udinese0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Parma
1.11
Total xG
2.26
Udinese
1.15
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Parma | Udinese |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.66x league average) | −0.72 | |
| High-scoring league (3.1 goals/match) | +0.62 | +0.62 |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.44 | |
| Attack weakness (0.65x league average) | −0.35 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.14 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.13 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.2 season average) | −0.13 | |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.11 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| Strong home record (1.1 vs 0.9 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.2 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Table: Both teams have 4 points from 8 games in the league this season (Parma in 19th place, Udinese in 17th)
- Form: Both teams scored 4 goals each in their last 5 games (Parma with 1 win, Udinese with 0 wins)
- xG: Parma created 0.99 xG per game in 5 games with xG data, while Udinese averaged 0.91 xG per game
Risks
- Away: Udinese scored 2.33 goals per game away in the league this season, while Parma scored 0.75 goals per game at home
- Head-to-head: Udinese won 3 of the 4 previous meetings, while Parma won 1 game
All probabilities
Result
Parma33%
Draw32%
Udinese35%
Double chance
Parma or draw65%
Udinese or draw67%
No draw68%
Goals
Over 1.568%
Under 1.532%
Over 2.539%
Under 2.561%
Over 3.519%
Under 3.581%
Both teams score
Yes48%
No52%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.12 : 1.14, rounded up only from .915% probability
Other likely scores
0:0
12%
0:1
10%
1:0
10%
1:2
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Parma: opponent scores first in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Parma: 4 of 8 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Udinese: 50% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 12)
- Parma: 4 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (4 of 8 total)
- Udinese: 75% of all goals in the first half (9 of 12, last 12 games)
Lineups
Parma 3-4-2-1 · Udinese 3-4-2-1
Parma
- 30 G. Daffara
- 15 E. Del Prato
- 37 M. Troilo
- 72 D. Drobnič
- 27 S. Britschgi
- 4 V. Sierro
- 16 M. Keita
- 29 F. Carboni
- 10 A. Bernabe Garcia
- 19 E. Toure
- 9 J. Romero
Udinese
- 40 M. Okoye
- 14 J. Abankwah
- 27 C. Kabasele
- 16 M. Palma
- 13 N. Bertola
- 8 J. Karlström
- 30 G. Chakvetadze
- 11 H. Kamara
- 10 N. Zaniolo
- 32 J. Ekkelenkamp
- 9 K. Davis
Substitutes
- 80 G. Fabbian
- 41 H. Nicolussi Caviglia
- 34 D. Santos Silva
- 20 M. Frigan
- 8 B. Cremaschi
- 14 E. Valeri
- 3 N. Ndiaye
- 32 C. Ordoñez
- 11 P. Almqvist
- 40 E. Corvi
- 22 S. Ghidotti
- 25 T. De Martis
- 7 O. Diallo Thiao
- 76 S. Lontani
- 47 A. Salam Konaté
- 91 L. Jovanović
- 46 U. Gómez Etxebarria
- 41 B. Mrozek
- 24 J. Piotrowski
- 38 L. Miller
- 20 J. Arizala
- 6 O. Zarraga Egaña
- 4 S. Lovric
- 93 D. Padelli
- 23 M. Vojvoda
- 77 E. Ebosse
- 45 G. Vinciati
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