Match report →
Monza – Napoli1 : 4
Why the model thinks so
Monza
0.98
Total xG
2.72
Napoli
1.74
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Monza | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.1 goals/match) | +0.62 | +0.62 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.19 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.19 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.14 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.7 season average) | +0.14 | |
| Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | +0.13 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.12 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.07 | |
| Kevin De Bruyne on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Defense: Monza concede 2.25 goals per game in the league this season, Napoli 1.25
- Table: Napoli rank 10th in Serie A this season with 11 points, Monza are 15th with 7 points
Risks
- Home/Away: Monza score 2.67 goals per game at home in the league this season, Napoli 1.25 away
- Squad: Napoli without B. Badiashile Mukinayi, started in 4 of the last 5 games
All probabilities
Result
Monza20%
Draw27%
Napoli54%
Double chance
Monza or draw46%
Napoli or draw80%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.551%
Under 2.549%
Over 3.529%
Under 3.571%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
xG score
1:1
From xG 0.98 : 1.74, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
0:2
10%
1:2
10%
0:3
6%
1:3
6%
1:4
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Napoli: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Monza: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 11 games)
Lineups
Monza 3-4-2-1 · Napoli 4-3-3
Monza
- 1 N. Törnqvist
- 19 S. Birindelli
- 2 S. Goglichidze
- 3 L. Lucchesi
- 24 A. Bakoune
- 8 M. Foe Ondoa
- 21 L. Colombo
- 7 R. Chaby Mangas
- 16 C. Ngonge
- 46 J. Robinson
- 9 G. Pereira De Sousa
Napoli
- 32 V. Milinković Savić
- 22 G. Di Lorenzo
- 13 A. Rrahmani
- 16 R. Marín Zamora
- 17 M. Olivera Miramontes
- 99 A. Zambo Anguissa
- 68 S. Lobotka
- 8 S. McTominay
- 21 M. Politano
- 19 R. Højlund
- 70 N. Lang
Substitutes
- 60 E. Kouadio
- 27 I. Touré
- 14 E. Akinsanmiro
- 10 P. Cutrone
- 6 V. Ivaylov Antov
- 20 D. Thiam
- 43 A. Strajnar
- 28 A. Colpani
- 26 P. Ciurria
- 11 O. Forson
- 47 D. Carvalho
- 44 A. Carboni
- 22 E. Zeballos
- 80 M. Mout
- 14 N. Contini Baranovsky
- 31 S. Beukema
- 6 B. Gilmour
- 20 L. Lucca
- 26 A. Vergara
- 1 A. Meret
- 11 K. De Bruyne
- 35 L. Marianucci
- 23 G. Santana do Nascimento
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