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Frosinone – Torino2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Frosinone
1.82
Total xG
3.30
Torino
1.48
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Frosinone | Torino |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.70 | +0.70 |
| Attack strength (1.26x league average) | +0.43 | |
| Attack weakness (0.67x league average) | −0.35 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | −0.24 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3 goals/match) | +0.23 | |
| Rising form (3 vs 2.2 season average) | +0.23 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.20 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.20 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.15 | |
| Anthony Oyono on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Rolando Mandragora not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.3 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home form: Frosinone average 2.8 goals per game at home in the league this season over 5 games
- Shots: Frosinone averaged 7.2 shots on target per game in the last 5 games, Torino 4.4 per game
Risks
- Rest days: Frosinone with 3 days since their last match
- Away form: Torino conceded 1 goal per game away from home in the league this season over 4 games
All probabilities
Result
Frosinone44%
Draw25%
Torino30%
Double chance
Frosinone or draw70%
Torino or draw56%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.585%
Under 1.515%
Over 2.564%
Under 2.536%
Over 3.542%
Under 3.558%
Both teams score
Yes66%
No34%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.82 : 1.48, rounded up only from .911% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
1:2
7%
2:2
7%
2:0
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Torino with Ché Adams starting: 1.6 goals/game, without him: 0.9 (15/8 games, last 30)
- Frosinone: 68% of all goals in the first half (19 of 28, last 12 games)
- Frosinone: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Torino: 5 of 17 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Torino: 6 of 17 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
Lineups
Frosinone 4-2-3-1 · Torino 3-5-2
Frosinone
- 22 L. Palmisani
- 90 E. Tchato Mbiayi
- 3 G. Calvani
- 30 I. Monterisi
- 79 G. Bracaglia
- 73 P. Masini
- 14 G. Calò
- 7 F. Ghedjemis
- 10 R. Schmid
- 17 G. Kvernadze
- 9 A. Raimondo
Torino
- 20 L. Estella Perri
- 23 S. Coco-Bassey Oubiña
- 44 A. Ismajli
- 15 P. Comuzzo
- 45 R. Belghali
- 10 N. Vlašić
- 21 D. Santos Bragança
- 66 G. Gineitis
- 7 Z. Aboukhlal
- 19 C. Adams
- 18 G. Simeone
Substitutes
- 25 K. Akpoguma
- 11 D. Birligea
- 71 A. Terzić
- 40 S. Fini
- 70 L. Hasa
- 24 A. Zerbin
- 91 S. Desplanches
- 20 A. Oyono Omva Torque
- 2 G. Cittadini
- 12 M. Pisseri
- 16 M. Cichella
- 74 O. Fayed
- 89 T. Bobček
- 34 A. El Azzouzi
- 5 W. Amey
- 5 E. Cömert
- 2 N. Patterson
- 28 K. Fitz-Jim
- 17 S. Kulenovic
- 91 D. Zapata Banguera
- 6 E. İlkhan
- 22 C. Casadei
- 11 G. Oristanio
- 9 P. Pellegri
- 26 D. Mascardi
- 76 L. Siviero
- 63 M. Carrascosa Moreno
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