Match report →
Lecce – Genoa1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Lecce
1.09
Total xG
2.23
Genoa
1.14
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Lecce | Genoa |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.69x league average) | −0.79 | |
| Attack weakness (0.44x league average) | −0.68 | |
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.67 | +0.67 |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.45 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.39 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | +0.03 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.01 | |
| Lassana Coulibaly not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (0.6 vs 1.3 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Table: Genoa sits 13th with 10 points after 9 games, while Lecce follows in 14th with 9 points
- Head-to-head: Across 4 meetings, both clubs record 1 win each and 2 draws
- Possession: Lecce recorded 40.6% possession per game in the last 5 matches, Genoa 42% per game
Risks
- Form: Genoa won 3 of their last 5 matches, while Lecce suffered 4 defeats in their last 5 matches
- Away: Genoa scored 0.33 goals per game away in the league this season across 3 matches
All probabilities
Result
Lecce33%
Draw32%
Genoa35%
Double chance
Lecce or draw65%
Genoa or draw67%
No draw68%
Goals
Over 1.567%
Under 1.533%
Over 2.538%
Under 2.562%
Over 3.519%
Under 3.581%
Both teams score
Yes47%
No53%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.09 : 1.14, rounded up only from .915% probability
Other likely scores
0:0
13%
0:1
11%
1:0
10%
1:2
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Lecce: 36% of all goals between minutes 1-15 (5 of 14)
Lineups
Lecce 4-3-3 · Genoa 3-4-2-1
Lecce
- 30 W. Falcone
- 17 D. Melo Veiga
- 5 J. Siebert
- 44 T. Coelho Oliveira
- 25 A. Gallo
- 28 O. Gorter
- 79 O. Ngom
- 14 Y. Maleh
- 11 K. Jocelyn N’dri
- 9 N. Štulić
- 99 J. Monteiro
Genoa
- 1 J. Bijlow
- 27 A. Marcandalli
- 5 L. Skiri Oestigaard
- 22 J. Vásquez Ibarra
- 77 M. Ellertsson
- 32 M. Frendrup
- 25 H. Traorè
- 92 S. El Shaarawy
- 71 S. Wiafe
- 10 J. Messias
- 18 M. Osmajić
Substitutes
- 7 A. Ahmed Fatah
- 2 A. Dembélé
- 18 G. Jean
- 3 C. Ndaba
- 77 M. Kaba
- 1 M. Bleve
- 16 O. Gandelman
- 8 S. Fofana
- 22 F. Esteban Sánchez
- 31 E. Scott
- 32 Alexandru Borbei
- 11 F. Meichtry
- 97 D. Sow
- 16 C. Drameh
- 8 T. Baldanzi
- 3 K. Ehizibue
- 39 D. Sommariva
- 29 L. Colombo
- 20 S. Sabelli
- 9 V. Carvalho Oliveira
- 34 S. Otoa
- 4 A. Amorim de Freitas Filho
- 99 F. Stolz
- 2 M. Mitaj
- 14 L. Klišys
- 31 D. Puczka
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