Match report →
Udinese – Roma2 : 5
Why the model thinks so
Udinese
0.92
Total xG
2.98
Roma
2.07
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Udinese | Roma |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.66 | +0.66 |
| Attack weakness (0.7x league average) | −0.64 | |
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.57 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.2 goals/match) | +0.41 | |
| Rising form (3.2 vs 1.8 season average) | +0.41 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.32 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.2 goals/match) | −0.31 | |
| Declining form (0.2 vs 1.2 season average) | −0.29 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.22 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 3, 14 places gap) | −0.15 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 17, 14 places gap) | +0.14 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.13 | |
| Niccolò Pisilli on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Gianluca Mancini on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Form: Roma with 3 wins in their last 5 games, Udinese winless in their last 5 games (1 draw, 4 losses)
- Home/Away: Udinese average 0.4 goals per game at home in the league this season, Roma 2.25 per game away
- Table: Roma are 3rd in Serie A with 21 points, Udinese are 17th with 5 points
Risks
- Defense: Roma conceded 1.8 goals per game in their last 5 games
- Head-to-head: Udinese won the last meeting 1-0 on 02/02/2026
All probabilities
Result
Udinese14%
Draw23%
Roma63%
Double chance
Udinese or draw37%
Roma or draw86%
No draw77%
Goals
Over 1.581%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.557%
Under 2.543%
Over 3.535%
Under 3.565%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
xG score
1:2
From xG 0.92 : 2.07, rounded up only from .910% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
11%
0:2
11%
0:3
7%
1:3
7%
2:5
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Roma: 6 of 13 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Roma: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Udinese: 50% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 12)
- Udinese: 75% of all goals in the first half (9 of 12, last 12 games)
Lineups
Udinese 3-4-2-1 · Roma 3-4-2-1
Udinese
- 40 M. Okoye
- 14 J. Abankwah
- 27 C. Kabasele
- 16 M. Palma
- 23 M. Vojvoda
- 8 J. Karlström
- 38 L. Miller
- 11 H. Kamara
- 10 N. Zaniolo
- 32 J. Ekkelenkamp
- 9 K. Davis
Roma
- 95 P. Gollini
- 87 D. Ghilardi
- 5 O. N'Dicka
- 22 M. Hermoso Canseco
- 20 N. Molina Lucero
- 4 B. Cristante
- 15 M. de Roon
- 43 W. França Lima
- 18 M. Malvano
- 86 R. Mora Carvalho
- 14 D. Malen
Substitutes
- 91 L. Jovanović
- 46 U. Gómez Etxebarria
- 30 G. Chakvetadze
- 41 B. Mrozek
- 24 J. Piotrowski
- 20 J. Arizala
- 6 O. Zarraga Egaña
- 4 S. Lovric
- 93 D. Padelli
- 13 N. Bertola
- 77 E. Ebosse
- 45 G. Vinciati
- 3 K. Koulierakis
- 26 L. Balerdi Rossa
- 9 S. Castro
- 32 D. Vásquez Llach
- 61 N. Pisilli
- 2 D. Rensch
- 23 G. Mancini
- 70 G. De Marzi
- 77 E. Lulli
- 63 A. Di Nunzio
- 78 M. Camara
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