Match report →
Como – Venezia1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Como
2.28
Total xG
3.10
Venezia
0.82
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Como | Venezia |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.70 | +0.70 |
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.63 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.26 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | −0.23 | |
| Declining form (0.4 vs 1.2 season average) | −0.23 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match) | +0.19 | |
| Rising form (2.8 vs 2.2 season average) | +0.19 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 20, 15 places gap) | +0.16 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 20 vs 5, 15 places gap) | −0.14 | |
| Álex Valle not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Maxence Caqueret not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Table: Como are 5th in the league this season with 20 points from 9 matches, Venezia are 20th with 3 points
- Form: Como won 4 of their last 5 matches, Venezia lost 4 of their last 5 matches
- Defense: Como concede 0.89 goals per match in 9 league matches this season, Venezia 2.11 goals per match in 9 matches
Risks
- Attack: Venezia averaged 1.63 xG per match in 5 matches with xG data, but scored 0.4 goals per match
- xG: Como averaged 1.58 xG per match in 5 matches with xG data, but scored 2.8 goals per match
All probabilities
Result
Como69%
Draw20%
Venezia11%
Double chance
Como or draw89%
Venezia or draw31%
No draw80%
Goals
Over 1.583%
Under 1.517%
Over 2.560%
Under 2.540%
Over 3.538%
Under 3.562%
Both teams score
Yes51%
No49%
xG score
2:0
From xG 2.28 : 0.82, rounded up only from .912% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
10%
1:1
10%
3:0
9%
3:1
7%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Venezia: opponent scores first in 9 of 12 games (75%)
Lineups
Como 4-2-3-1 · Venezia 3-5-2
Como
- 1 J. Butez
- 27 Y. Couto
- 4 J. Naveros
- 2 M. Kempf
- 16 K. da Silva
- 6 L. Milla Manzanares
- 21 S. Ricci
- 7 L. Da Cunha
- 10 N. Paz Martínez
- 20 M. Baturina
- 9 A. Douvikas
Venezia
- 1 F. Stankovic
- 25 R. Halhal
- 2 M. Moreno
- 15 J. Nunes Jesus
- 18 A. Hainaut
- 21 T. Helgason
- 19 S. Sohm
- 6 G. Busio
- 70 P. Mazzocchi
- 45 A. Adams
- 29 L. Lauberbach
Substitutes
- 53 W. Kambwala
- 97 R. Lynch Sanchez
- 15 A. Lahdo
- 28 I. Smolčić
- 5 M. Perrone
- 8 M. Caqueret
- 18 E. Goldaniga
- 13 A. Dossena
- 22 M. Vigorito
- 3 ?. Valle Gómez
- 30 M. Liberali
- 54 M. Papaccioli
- 8 L. Dabo
- 56 K. Lisman
- 7 A. Rrahmani
- 77 A. Fernández Casino
- 26 T. Bašić
- 17 A. Bella-Kotchap
- 96 L. Montipò
- 5 R. Haps
- 32 J. Duncan
- 10 J. Zamora
- 3 J. Schingtienne
- 20 S. Sagrado
- 71 E. Pérez Muñoz
- 30 M. Dagasso
- 16 R. Mohammed
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