Match report →
Atalanta – Parma0 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Atalanta
2.04
Total xG
2.82
Parma
0.78
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Atalanta | Parma |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.38x league average) | +1.31 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | −0.82 | |
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.65 | +0.65 |
| Attack weakness (0.44x league average) | −0.57 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.31 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.19 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.19 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.09 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.03 | |
| Gianluca Gaetano not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Eljif Elmas on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| David Romero on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (2 vs 1.6 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Atalanta scores 2.2 goals per game at home in the league, Parma concedes 2.25 goals per game away
- Table: Atalanta is 13th with 11 points from 9 matches, Parma is 18th with 5 points from 9 matches
- Shots: Atalanta averaged 5.2 shots on target per game over the last 5 matches, Parma 3.6 per game
Risks
- Squad: Atalanta without R. Bellanova, in the starting XI in 3 of the last 5 matches
- Form: Atalanta recorded 1 win in their last 5 matches and conceded 2.4 goals per game in that period
All probabilities
Result
Atalanta66%
Draw22%
Parma12%
Double chance
Atalanta or draw88%
Parma or draw34%
No draw78%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.553%
Under 2.547%
Over 3.531%
Under 3.569%
Both teams score
Yes48%
No52%
xG score
2:0
From xG 2.04 : 0.78, rounded up only from .912% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
11%
2:1
10%
3:0
8%
3:1
7%
0:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Parma: 4 of 8 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Parma: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Parma: 4 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (4 of 8 total)
- Atalanta with Davide Zappacosta starting: 1.7 goals/game, without him: 0.6 (20/5 games, last 30)
- Atalanta: 7 of 20 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
Lineups
Atalanta 4-2-3-1 · Parma 3-5-2
Atalanta
- 29 M. Carnesecchi
- 77 D. Zappacosta
- 42 G. Scalvini
- 40 R. Obrić
- 47 L. Bernasconi
- 13 É. dos Santos Lourenço da Silva
- 8 M. Pašalić
- 59 N. Zalewski
- 17 C. De Ketelaere
- 11 J. Rowe
- 90 N. Krstović
Parma
- 30 G. Daffara
- 15 E. Del Prato
- 37 M. Troilo
- 72 D. Drobnič
- 27 S. Britschgi
- 80 G. Fabbian
- 4 V. Sierro
- 16 M. Keita
- 14 E. Valeri
- 19 E. Toure
- 76 S. Lontani
Substitutes
- 7 K. Sulemana
- 57 M. Sportiello
- 10 L. Samardžić
- 99 E. Elmas
- 46 S. Levak
- 41 J. Idele
- 51 M. Sonzogni
- 53 M. Plaia
- 41 H. Nicolussi Caviglia
- 34 D. Santos Silva
- 20 M. Frigan
- 8 B. Cremaschi
- 3 N. Ndiaye
- 32 C. Ordoñez
- 11 P. Almqvist
- 40 E. Corvi
- 29 F. Carboni
- 22 S. Ghidotti
- 23 N. Elphege
- 9 J. Romero
- 7 O. Diallo Thiao
- 47 A. Salam Konaté
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