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Sassuolo – Fiorentina2 : 4
Why the model thinks so
Sassuolo
1.18
Total xG
2.58
Fiorentina
1.40
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Sassuolo | Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.54x league average) | −0.67 | |
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.65 | +0.65 |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.43 | |
| Attack weakness (0.74x league average) | −0.27 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.14 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| Darryl Bakola on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.4 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Away/Home: Fiorentina scores 1.5 goals per game away in the league this season, Sassuolo concedes 2.5 per game at home
- Shots: Fiorentina averaged 16.4 shots per game in the last 5 games, Sassuolo 12 per game in the last 5 games
- Defense: Sassuolo conceded 22 goals in 9 league games this season (2.44 per game)
Risks
- Table: Sassuolo is 15th in the league this season with 8 points from 9 games, Fiorentina is 17th with 5 points
- Form: Fiorentina is winless in their last 5 games (2 draws, 3 losses) and won 1 of 9 league games
All probabilities
Result
Sassuolo30%
Draw30%
Fiorentina40%
Double chance
Sassuolo or draw60%
Fiorentina or draw70%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.575%
Under 1.525%
Over 2.548%
Under 2.552%
Over 3.526%
Under 3.574%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.18 : 1.40, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
9%
0:2
7%
2:1
7%
2:0
5%
2:4
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Fiorentina: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Sassuolo: 6 of 18 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Fiorentina: dropped a lead in 4 of 7 games (10 points lost)
- Sassuolo: 7 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Sassuolo 4-3-3 · Fiorentina 4-3-3
Sassuolo
- 80 S. Turati
- 6 S. Walukiewicz
- 21 J. Idzes
- 5 F. Candé
- 3 J. Doig
- 17 V. Adžić
- 18 N. Matić
- 55 I. Sulemana
- 10 D. Berardi
- 94 S. Esposito
- 45 A. Lauriente
Fiorentina
- 43 D. de Gea Quintana
- 20 A. Jiménez Sánchez
- 3 R. Drăgușin
- 33 V. Fernandes Santos Lopes
- 17 J. Neto Lopes
- 27 C. Ndour
- 44 N. Fagioli
- 4 M. Brescianini
- 30 F. Mastantuono
- 32 M. Pellegrino Casalanguila
- 25 A. Njie
Substitutes
- 15 D. Ćaleta-Car
- 50 D. Bakola
- 33 Rafael Burguera
- 25 B. Domínguez
- 9 K. Bowie
- 20 I. Brempt
- 49 A. Murić
- 12 G. Satalino
- 70 E. Pieragnolo
- 26 C. Odenthal
- 77 N. Pierini
- 35 L. Lipani
- 8 A. Ghion
- 46 S. Cinquegrano
- 14 G. Kulla
- 29 D. Gnonto
- 23 N. Bercique Gomes Betuncal
- 28 P. Pereira Gonçalves
- 19 L. Lezzerini
- 53 O. Christensen
- 2 D. Cordeiro dos Santos
- 21 V. Valdepeñas Talavera
- 42 C. Inao Oulaï
- 70 F. Croci
- 76 S. Cianciulli
- 75 D. Beldenti
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