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Lazio – Cagliari2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Lazio
1.75
Total xG
2.66
Cagliari
0.91
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Lazio | Cagliari |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.70 | +0.70 |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.2 goals/match) | +0.53 | |
| Rising form (3.2 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.53 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.48 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.18 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.14 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.1 season average) | −0.10 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 1, 10 places gap) | −0.10 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 11, 10 places gap) | +0.08 | |
| Paul Mendy on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Form: Lazio have 5 wins in their last 5 matches, Cagliari 1 win in their last 5 matches
- Table: Lazio are 1st in the league this season after 9 matches, Cagliari are 11th
- Home/Away: Lazio score 2 goals per match at home in the league this season, Cagliari concede 1.8 per match away
Risks
- xG: Lazio generated 1.87 xG per match in 5 matches with xG data, but scored 3.2 goals per match
- Away: Cagliari score 1.2 goals per match away in the league this season, compared to 0.5 goals per match at home
All probabilities
Result
Lazio56%
Draw26%
Cagliari18%
Double chance
Lazio or draw82%
Cagliari or draw44%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.550%
Under 2.550%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Both teams score
Yes51%
No49%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.75 : 0.91, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
2:0
11%
2:1
10%
3:0
6%
3:1
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Cagliari: 6 of 16 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Cagliari: 42% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (5 of 12)
- Lazio: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Lazio 4-3-3 · Cagliari 4-2-3-1
Lazio
- 35 C. Mandas
- 15 R. Floriani
- 37 J. Šutalo
- 25 O. Nielsen
- 17 N. Varela Tavares
- 16 D. Frattesi
- 21 R. Belahyane
- 24 K. Taylor
- 11 G. Isaksen
- 14 T. Noslin
- 10 M. Zaccagni
Cagliari
- 1 E. Caprile
- 2 J. da Silva Figueiredo Freitas
- 14 A. Deiola
- 15 J. Rodríguez Camejo
- 33 A. Obert
- 8 M. Adopo
- 4 A. Romano
- 39 A. Fadera
- 70 D. Maldini
- 10 J. Fazzini
- 18 M. N'Zola
Substitutes
- 5 D. Doekhi
- 2 D. Monteiro Pinto Leite
- 23 A. Pedraza Sag
- 32 D. Cataldi
- 22 M. Cancellieri
- 29 M. Lazzari
- 7 F. Dele-Bashiru
- 3 L. Pellegrini
- 9 A. Pinamonti
- 40 E. Motta
- 76 F. Bordon
- 71 V. Farcomeni
- 28 A. Przyborek
- 47 D. Renzetti
- 33 R. Bordon
- 28 Y. Sugawara
- 9 K. Omoruyi Benjamin
- 6 H. Winks
- 21 R. Gagliardini
- 27 J. Liteta
- 12 A. Sherri
- 26 Y. Mina González
- 79 Y. Massolin
- 20 R. Ciervo
- 23 B. Radunović
- 24 G. Aurelio
- 22 R. Kofler
- 19 Y. Trepy
- 32 I. Sulev
- 31 P. Mendy
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