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AC Milan – Inter3 : 1
Why the model thinks so
AC Milan
1.32
Total xG
3.13
Inter
1.81
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | AC Milan | Inter |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.70 | +0.70 |
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.60 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.28 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.19 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.19 | |
| Attack strength (1.62x league average) | −0.09 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.02 | |
| Alphadjo Cissè not in squad (4 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Piotr Zieliński on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) |
Key factors
- Table: Inter lead the league with 8 wins in 9 matches, AC Milan are 5th with 18 points
- Attack: Inter average 2.78 goals per match in the league this season, AC Milan concede 1.5 goals per home match
- Shots: Inter average 7.6 shots on target per match in recent games, AC Milan 5.2 shots on target per match
Risks
- Head-to-head: AC Milan won 3 of the last 5 meetings, Inter 0 with 2 draws
- Home form: AC Milan score 2.5 goals per match at home in the league this season
All probabilities
Result
AC Milan27%
Draw26%
Inter48%
Double chance
AC Milan or draw52%
Inter or draw73%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.583%
Under 1.517%
Over 2.561%
Under 2.540%
Over 3.538%
Under 3.562%
Both teams score
Yes63%
No37%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.32 : 1.81, rounded up only from .912% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
9%
0:2
7%
2:1
7%
2:2
6%
3:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- AC Milan: 50% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (11 of 22)
- Inter: 43% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (13 of 30)
- Inter: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Inter: 3 comebacks in 5 games after trailing past minute 75 (7 points rescued)
- AC Milan with Gonçalo Ramos starting: 1.8 goals/game, without him: 1.1 (10/19 games, last 30)
- Diego Moreira: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
Lineups
AC Milan 3-4-2-1 · Inter 3-4-2-1
AC Milan
- 16 M. Maignan
- 34 M. Fuentes
- 5 K. De Winter
- 31 S. Pavlović
- 22 D. da Silva Moreira
- 14 L. Modrić
- 80 Y. Musah
- 13 S. Bocoum
- 12 A. Rabiot
- 11 C. Pulisic
- 9 G. Ramos
Inter
- 1 J. Martínez Riera
- 31 Y. Bisseck
- 25 M. Akanji
- 95 A. Bastoni
- 99 D. Spence
- 23 N. Barella
- 20 H. Çalhanoğlu
- 30 C. Zopalato Neves
- 17 A. Diouf
- 8 P. Sučić
- 9 M. Thuram
Substitutes
- 20 O. Giraud-Hutchinson
- 30 A. Jasari
- 2 P. Estupiñán Tenorio
- 33 D. Bartesaghi
- 96 L. Torriani
- 73 F. Camarda
- 42 F. Terracciano
- 70 A. Cisse
- 35 V. Vladimirov
- 28 C. Comotto
- 41 L. Bouyer
- 55 S. Cliff Robbie Vos
- 40 L. Ossola
- 47 N. Perera
- 49 Luca Menon
- 5 A. Stankovic
- 14 A. Bonny
- 94 F. Esposito
- 22 H. Mkhitaryan
- 7 P. Zieliński
- 12 R. Di Gennaro
- 32 F. Dimarco
- 51 L. Jakirović
- 40 A. Taho
- 49 I. Provedel
- 48 M. Mosconi
- 53 M. Lavelli
- 46 L. Bovio
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