Match report →
Bologna – Monza2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Bologna
1.56
Total xG
2.54
Monza
0.98
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Bologna | Monza |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.65 | +0.65 |
| Defensive strength (1.9 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.38 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.17 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.17 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.17 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.10 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.09 | |
| Jay Robinson on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.3 vs 1.7 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Away: Monza concede 2.8 goals per game away in the league this season
- Head-to-head: Bologna won all 3 previous meetings against Monza
Risks
- Home: Bologna scored 1 goal per game at home in the league this season and conceded 1.75 goals per game
All probabilities
Result
Bologna49%
Draw29%
Monza22%
Double chance
Bologna or draw78%
Monza or draw51%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.547%
Under 2.553%
Over 3.525%
Under 3.575%
Both teams score
Yes51%
No49%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.56 : 0.98, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
2:0
10%
2:1
9%
1:2
6%
3:0
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Monza: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
Lineups
Bologna 3-4-2-1 · Monza 3-4-2-1
Bologna
- 1 Ł. Skorupski
- 41 M. Vitík
- 16 N. Casale
- 3 A. Theate
- 20 N. Zortea
- 19 L. Ferguson
- 4 T. Pobega
- 33 J. Miranda González
- 10 F. Bernardeschi
- 28 N. Cambiaghi
- 21 J. Odgaard
Monza
- 1 N. Törnqvist
- 60 E. Kouadio
- 2 S. Goglichidze
- 3 L. Lucchesi
- 19 S. Birindelli
- 8 M. Foe Ondoa
- 21 L. Colombo
- 7 R. Chaby Mangas
- 47 D. Carvalho
- 22 E. Zeballos
- 9 G. Pereira De Sousa
Substitutes
- 11 S. Mbangula
- 17 O. El Azzouzi
- 23 A. Alhassane Bonkan
- 36 M. Darmian
- 5 E. Fauske Helland
- 14 T. Heggem
- 25 M. Pessina
- 6 N. Moro
- 7 R. Orsolini
- 9 A. Dovbyk
- 72 U. Happonen
- 8 M. Amondarain
- 18 M. Libra Alvarado
- 46 J. Robinson
- 16 C. Ngonge
- 27 I. Touré
- 14 E. Akinsanmiro
- 10 P. Cutrone
- 6 V. Ivaylov Antov
- 20 D. Thiam
- 43 A. Strajnar
- 24 A. Bakoune
- 28 A. Colpani
- 26 P. Ciurria
- 11 O. Forson
- 44 A. Carboni
- 80 M. Mout
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