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Juventus – Napoli2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Juventus
1.51
Total xG
2.79
Napoli
1.29
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Juventus | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.67 | +0.67 |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.47 | |
| Attack strength (1.22x league average) | −0.28 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.23 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.23 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.23 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.17 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 1.8 season average) | −0.17 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.04 | |
| Federico Gatti on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Rasmus Højlund on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) |
Key factors
- xG: Juventus allowed 1.16 xG per match in 5 matches with xG data, but conceded 1.6 goals per match
- Possession: Juventus recorded 57.2% possession per match in the last 5 matches, Napoli 53.2%
Risks
- Attack: Napoli scored 2.4 goals per match in the last 5 matches, Juventus 1.2 goals per match
- Table: Napoli sit 7th in the league this season with 14 points, Juventus 9th with 14 points
- Head-to-head: Napoli won 2 of the 4 meetings since 2024, Juventus 1
All probabilities
Result
Juventus41%
Draw28%
Napoli31%
Double chance
Juventus or draw69%
Napoli or draw59%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.553%
Under 2.547%
Over 3.531%
Under 3.569%
Both teams score
Yes58%
No42%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.51 : 1.29, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Juventus: 7 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Sassuolo: 2 goals (82', 90+1')
- Napoli: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Juventus: 7 of 20 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
Lineups
Juventus 4-4-2 · Napoli 4-3-3
Juventus
- 25 G. Vicario
- 15 P. Kalulu Kyatengwa
- 3 G. Bremer Silva Nascimento
- 26 J. Lucumí Bonilla
- 32 J. Cabal Murillo
- 22 W. McKennie
- 12 D. Soares de Paulo
- 8 T. Koopmeiners
- 17 K. Alajbegović
- 9 R. Kolo Muani
- 27 N. Woltemade
Napoli
- 1 A. Meret
- 22 G. Di Lorenzo
- 35 L. Marianucci
- 16 R. Marín Zamora
- 17 M. Olivera Miramontes
- 11 K. De Bruyne
- 99 A. Zambo Anguissa
- 8 S. McTominay
- 21 M. Politano
- 20 L. Lucca
- 70 N. Lang
Substitutes
- 13 J. Boga
- 29 P. Sarr
- 4 F. Gatti
- 11 E. Zhegrova
- 24 D. Rugani
- 23 C. Pinsoglio
- 20 A. Cambiaso
- 6 L. Kelly
- 18 J. Ekhator
- 33 N. Murara Neto
- 14 N. Contini Baranovsky
- 31 S. Beukema
- 19 R. Højlund
- 6 B. Gilmour
- 26 A. Vergara
- 13 A. Rrahmani
- 23 G. Santana do Nascimento
- 41 D. Spinelli
- 36 M. Pereyra
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