Match report →
Genoa – AC Milan1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Genoa
0.91
Total xG
2.53
AC Milan
1.62
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Genoa | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.1 goals/match) | +0.64 | +0.64 |
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.48 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | +0.20 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.09 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 5, 7 places gap) | −0.07 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 12, 7 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.05 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.02 | |
| Stephan El Shaarawy on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Table: AC Milan is 5th with 21 points from 10 matches, while Genoa is 12th with 13 points
- Attack: AC Milan scores 2.1 goals per match in the league this season, compared to 1 goal per match for Genoa
- Head-to-head: AC Milan won 2 of the 4 meetings against Genoa with 2 draws and 0 losses
Risks
- Form: Genoa won 4 of their last 5 matches, while AC Milan lost 3 of their last 5 matches
- Rest days: AC Milan has had 3 days since their last match, while Genoa has had 7 days of rest
All probabilities
Result
Genoa20%
Draw28%
AC Milan53%
Double chance
Genoa or draw47%
AC Milan or draw80%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.573%
Under 1.527%
Over 2.546%
Under 2.554%
Over 3.525%
Under 3.575%
Both teams score
Yes49%
No51%
xG score
1:1
From xG 0.91 : 1.62, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
0:2
10%
1:2
10%
0:3
6%
2:1
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- AC Milan: 38% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (8 of 21)
- AC Milan with Gonçalo Ramos starting: 1.8 goals/game, without him: 1.1 (12/17 games, last 30)
- Genoa: 67% of all goals in the first half (10 of 15, last 12 games)
- AC Milan: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)
Lineups
Genoa 3-4-2-1 · AC Milan 3-4-2-1
Genoa
- 1 J. Bijlow
- 27 A. Marcandalli
- 5 L. Skiri Oestigaard
- 22 J. Vásquez Ibarra
- 3 K. Ehizibue
- 71 S. Wiafe
- 25 H. Traorè
- 77 M. Ellertsson
- 10 J. Messias
- 9 V. Carvalho Oliveira
- 18 M. Osmajić
AC Milan
- 16 M. Maignan
- 34 M. Fuentes
- 5 K. De Winter
- 13 S. Bocoum
- 22 D. da Silva Moreira
- 14 L. Modrić
- 12 A. Rabiot
- 80 Y. Musah
- 11 C. Pulisic
- 70 A. Cisse
- 9 G. Ramos
Substitutes
- 11 F. Meichtry
- 97 D. Sow
- 16 C. Drameh
- 8 T. Baldanzi
- 92 S. El Shaarawy
- 39 D. Sommariva
- 76 L. Venturino
- 29 L. Colombo
- 20 S. Sabelli
- 32 M. Frendrup
- 34 S. Otoa
- 17 E. Havel
- 4 A. Amorim de Freitas Filho
- 99 F. Stolz
- 2 M. Mitaj
- 31 D. Puczka
- 20 O. Giraud-Hutchinson
- 30 A. Jasari
- 2 P. Estupiñán Tenorio
- 33 D. Bartesaghi
- 96 L. Torriani
- 73 F. Camarda
- 42 F. Terracciano
- 35 V. Vladimirov
- 28 C. Comotto
- 41 L. Bouyer
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