Match report →
Napoli – Lazio1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Napoli
1.66
Total xG
2.67
Lazio
1.02
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Napoli | Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.1 goals/match) | +0.64 | +0.64 |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.2 goals/match) | +0.53 | |
| Rising form (3.2 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.53 | |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.38 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.29 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.24 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.24 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 1, 9 places gap) | −0.16 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.10 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | −0.07 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 10, 9 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| Matteo Politano on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Giovanni Di Lorenzo not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Mattia Zaccagni not in squad (2 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (2.2 vs 1.6 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home: Napoli scores 2 goals per game at home in the league this season in 4 matches
- Shots on target: Napoli averages 6.2 shots on target per game in the last 5 matches
Risks
- Form: Lazio won their last 5 matches, scoring 3.2 goals per game
- Away: Lazio scores 2.8 goals per game away from home in the league this season in 5 matches
- Table: Lazio is 1st in the league this season with 28 points from 10 matches, Napoli is 10th with 14 points
All probabilities
Result
Napoli51%
Draw27%
Lazio22%
Double chance
Napoli or draw78%
Lazio or draw49%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.550%
Under 2.550%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.66 : 1.02, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
10%
2:0
9%
1:2
6%
3:1
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Lazio: 8 wins in 10 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)
- Napoli: 8 of 22 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Napoli: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Lazio: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Napoli: 8 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Napoli 3-4-2-1 · Lazio 4-3-3
Napoli
- 32 V. Milinković Savić
- 31 S. Beukema
- 13 A. Rrahmani
- 16 R. Marín Zamora
- 26 A. Vergara
- 6 B. Gilmour
- 8 S. McTominay
- 17 M. Olivera Miramontes
- 11 K. De Bruyne
- 70 N. Lang
- 19 R. Højlund
Lazio
- 35 C. Mandas
- 15 R. Floriani
- 37 J. Šutalo
- 25 O. Nielsen
- 17 N. Varela Tavares
- 16 D. Frattesi
- 21 R. Belahyane
- 24 K. Taylor
- 11 G. Isaksen
- 9 A. Pinamonti
- 14 T. Noslin
Substitutes
- 14 N. Contini Baranovsky
- 20 L. Lucca
- 21 M. Politano
- 1 A. Meret
- 99 A. Zambo Anguissa
- 23 G. Santana do Nascimento
- 36 M. Pereyra
- 18 F. Barido
- 38 A. Chiummariello
- 39 N. Melnyk
- 40 Claudio Lieto
- 5 D. Doekhi
- 2 D. Monteiro Pinto Leite
- 23 A. Pedraza Sag
- 32 D. Cataldi
- 22 M. Cancellieri
- 29 M. Lazzari
- 77 A. Marušić
- 7 F. Dele-Bashiru
- 3 L. Pellegrini
- 6 N. Rovella
- 40 E. Motta
- 71 V. Farcomeni
- 63 F. Serra
- 28 A. Przyborek
- 47 D. Renzetti
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