Match report →
Monza – Atalanta0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Monza
1.22
Total xG
3.00
Atalanta
1.78
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Monza | Atalanta |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.1 goals/match) | +0.64 | +0.64 |
| Attack weakness (0.75x league average) | −0.47 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.33 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.18 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.18 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.05 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| Samuele Birindelli not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Dany Mota on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Gianluca Gaetano not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.5 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Defense: Monza conceded 2.4 goals per game in 10 league matches this season
- xG: Atalanta generated 2.35 xG per game in 5 matches with xG data, but scored 1.4 goals per game
- Shots: Atalanta averaged 16.8 shots per game in their last 5 matches, Monza 10.6 per game
Risks
- Rest days: Atalanta with 3 days since their last match
- Form: Atalanta are winless in their last 5 matches with 3 draws and 2 losses
All probabilities
Result
Monza25%
Draw26%
Atalanta49%
Double chance
Monza or draw51%
Atalanta or draw75%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.558%
Under 2.542%
Over 3.535%
Under 3.565%
Both teams score
Yes60%
No40%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.22 : 1.78, rounded up only from .912% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
10%
0:2
8%
2:1
7%
2:2
6%
0:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Monza: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Atalanta: 61% of all goals in the first half (11 of 18, last 12 games)
Lineups
Monza 3-5-2 · Atalanta 4-2-3-1
Monza
- 1 N. Törnqvist
- 60 E. Kouadio
- 2 S. Goglichidze
- 3 L. Lucchesi
- 27 I. Touré
- 14 E. Akinsanmiro
- 21 L. Colombo
- 80 M. Mout
- 7 R. Chaby Mangas
- 9 G. Pereira De Sousa
- 46 J. Robinson
Atalanta
- 29 M. Carnesecchi
- 77 D. Zappacosta
- 42 G. Scalvini
- 23 S. Kolašinac
- 47 L. Bernasconi
- 13 É. dos Santos Lourenço da Silva
- 8 M. Pašalić
- 99 E. Elmas
- 17 C. De Ketelaere
- 59 N. Zalewski
- 90 N. Krstović
Substitutes
- 4 J. Ziółkowski
- 16 C. Ngonge
- 10 P. Cutrone
- 6 V. Ivaylov Antov
- 20 D. Thiam
- 43 A. Strajnar
- 24 A. Bakoune
- 28 A. Colpani
- 26 P. Ciurria
- 32 M. Pessina
- 11 O. Forson
- 47 D. Carvalho
- 44 A. Carboni
- 22 E. Zeballos
- 8 M. Foe Ondoa
- 7 K. Sulemana
- 57 M. Sportiello
- 9 G. Scamacca
- 10 L. Samardžić
- 11 J. Rowe
- 40 R. Obrić
- 19 F. Kessié
- 41 J. Idele
- 51 M. Sonzogni
- 53 M. Plaia
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