Match report →
Parma – Bologna1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Parma
0.91
Total xG
2.26
Bologna
1.35
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Parma | Bologna |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.67x league average) | −0.90 | |
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.66 | +0.66 |
| Attack weakness (0.72x league average) | −0.62 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.45 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.36 | |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.24 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.23 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.23 | |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.16 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 9, 6 places gap) | −0.06 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 9 vs 15, 6 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.4 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Form: Bologna with 4 wins in their last 5 games, Parma with 1
- Home/Away: Bologna average 1.6 goals per game away in the league this season, Parma 0.6 at home
- Table: Bologna are 9th in Serie A with 14 points, Parma 15th with 8 points
Risks
- Head-to-head: Parma won the last meeting 1-0, with both teams winning 2 of the 5 meetings
All probabilities
Result
Parma24%
Draw31%
Bologna45%
Double chance
Parma or draw55%
Bologna or draw76%
No draw69%
Goals
Over 1.568%
Under 1.532%
Over 2.539%
Under 2.561%
Over 3.519%
Under 3.581%
Both teams score
Yes46%
No54%
xG score
1:1
From xG 0.91 : 1.35, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
0:1
12%
0:0
12%
0:2
9%
1:2
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Parma: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Parma: 4 of 10 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
Lineups
Parma 3-5-2 · Bologna 3-4-3
Parma
- 30 G. Daffara
- 15 E. Del Prato
- 37 M. Troilo
- 3 N. Ndiaye
- 8 B. Cremaschi
- 80 G. Fabbian
- 4 V. Sierro
- 16 M. Keita
- 14 E. Valeri
- 9 J. Romero
- 76 S. Lontani
Bologna
- 1 Ł. Skorupski
- 36 M. Darmian
- 16 N. Casale
- 3 A. Theate
- 20 N. Zortea
- 19 L. Ferguson
- 4 T. Pobega
- 33 J. Miranda González
- 10 F. Bernardeschi
- 21 J. Odgaard
- 28 N. Cambiaghi
Substitutes
- 19 E. Toure
- 41 H. Nicolussi Caviglia
- 27 S. Britschgi
- 34 D. Santos Silva
- 20 M. Frigan
- 32 C. Ordoñez
- 11 P. Almqvist
- 40 E. Corvi
- 29 F. Carboni
- 22 S. Ghidotti
- 23 N. Elphege
- 7 O. Diallo Thiao
- 47 A. Salam Konaté
- 11 S. Mbangula
- 17 O. El Azzouzi
- 23 A. Alhassane Bonkan
- 5 E. Fauske Helland
- 14 T. Heggem
- 41 M. Vitík
- 25 M. Pessina
- 6 N. Moro
- 7 R. Orsolini
- 9 A. Dovbyk
- 91 R. Piccoli
- 72 U. Happonen
- 8 M. Amondarain
- 18 M. Libra Alvarado
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