Match report →
Inter – Como2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Inter
1.91
Total xG
3.19
Como
1.28
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Inter | Como |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.93x league average) | +1.08 | |
| High-scoring league (3.1 goals/match) | +0.61 | +0.61 |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.53 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | −0.52 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.8 goals/match) | +0.46 | |
| Rising form (3.8 vs 2.3 season average) | +0.46 | |
| Attack strength (1.25x league average) | −0.28 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | +0.19 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.15 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Declining form (1.8 vs 2.3 season average) | −0.15 | |
| Andy Diouf on the bench (0 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Yann Bisseck on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Maxence Caqueret on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (3.1 vs 2.3 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1.8 vs 2.3 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/away: Inter average 3.4 goals per game at home in the league this season, while Como concede 1.17 away
- Head-to-head: Inter have won 4 of the last 5 meetings against Como, with 1 draw
Risks
- Away: Como average 2.17 goals per game away in the league this season, while Inter concede 1.4 at home
- Form: Como have won all 5 of their last 5 matches across all competitions, while Inter won 4
All probabilities
Result
Inter51%
Draw25%
Como24%
Double chance
Inter or draw76%
Como or draw49%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.584%
Under 1.516%
Over 2.562%
Under 2.538%
Over 3.539%
Under 3.561%
Both teams score
Yes63%
No37%
xG score
2:1
From xG 1.91 : 1.28, rounded up only from .910% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
11%
2:0
8%
1:2
6%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Como: 9 wins in 11 games with xG above 1.0 (82% win rate)
- Inter: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Inter: 45% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (13 of 29)
- Como: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Inter: 3 comebacks in 6 games after trailing past minute 75 (7 points rescued)
- Inter: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Inter 3-5-2 · Como 4-2-3-1
Inter
- 1 J. Martínez Riera
- 25 M. Akanji
- 95 A. Bastoni
- 30 C. Zopalato Neves
- 99 D. Spence
- 23 N. Barella
- 20 H. Çalhanoğlu
- 7 P. Zieliński
- 32 F. Dimarco
- 94 F. Esposito
- 9 M. Thuram
Como
- 97 R. Lynch Sanchez
- 27 Y. Couto
- 4 J. Naveros
- 2 M. Kempf
- 3 ?. Valle Gómez
- 5 M. Perrone
- 6 L. Milla Manzanares
- 7 L. Da Cunha
- 10 N. Paz Martínez
- 20 M. Baturina
- 9 A. Douvikas
Substitutes
- 28 B. Pavard
- 21 C. Jones
- 6 J. Stones
- 5 A. Stankovic
- 14 A. Bonny
- 8 P. Sučić
- 22 H. Mkhitaryan
- 12 R. Di Gennaro
- 17 A. Diouf
- 31 Y. Bisseck
- 49 I. Provedel
- 53 M. Lavelli
- 46 L. Bovio
- 53 W. Kambwala
- 15 A. Lahdo
- 21 S. Ricci
- 28 I. Smolčić
- 1 J. Butez
- 8 M. Caqueret
- 18 E. Goldaniga
- 13 A. Dossena
- 22 M. Vigorito
- 30 M. Liberali
- 55 C. De Paoli
- 16 K. da Silva
- 54 M. Papaccioli
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